UBS Upgrades Albemarle to Neutral, Boosts Price Target to $89 Amid China Lithium Supply Closures

Albemarle's shares are little changed despite UBS upgrading the lithium producer to Neutral from Sell with an $89 price target, raised from $62. The bank cites further China supply actions as supporting its lower-for-longer thesis for the company, which it believes will lift lithium prices.

Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) saw its shares little changed on Tuesday despite UBS Group upgrading the lithium producer to Neutral from Sell, with a new price target of $89, up from $62. The upgrade reflects UBS's revised outlook on Albemarle's risk/reward profile, citing further actions in China's lithium supply market.

UBS analyst Joshua Spector believes that the China team's analysis indicates a potential 20% year-over-year increase in lithium prices in 2026. This is due to estimated net lithium supply losses of around 100,000 metric tons in 2026, resulting from site closures or reduced production at approximately 10 different sites in China. This shift in supply dynamics is expected to move the market closer to a balanced position, potentially lifting prices higher than previously anticipated.

Spector's revised base case now projects Albemarle to generate $200M-$300M in free cash flow per year before preferred and base dividends, an improvement from his prior outlook of roughly breakeven and negative after combined dividend payments.

The upgrade comes on the heels of several other analyst upgrades, including Needham & Company LLC and JPMorgan Chase & Co., which have also raised their price targets on Albemarle shares. Despite the positive outlook, Albemarle faces significant challenges, including geopolitical risks and the need to secure government support for its refinery plans.

References:
[1] https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/ssc-technologies-nasdaqssnc-given-new-11000-price-target-at-ubs-group-2025-08-22/
[2] https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/ubs-group-upgrades-antero-resources-nysear-to-buy-2025-08-20/