UBS Sees Tesla Exceeding 500K Q3 Deliveries, New Record Ahead

The U.S. electric vehicle tax credit is set to expire at the end of September, giving EV makers such as Tesla one final sales push. In early October, Tesla will release its third-quarter delivery figures.

UBS raised its Q3 delivery estimate for Tesla from 431,000 units to 475,000, an upgrade of nearly 10%.

The bank also said Tesla’s Q3 deliveries could exceed 500,000, setting a new quarterly record. Tesla’s current quarterly high is 495,600 vehicles in Q4 2024, just short of the 500,000 milestone.

Signs of sales rebound emerge across regions

As Elon Musk gradually steps back from politics, Tesla’s strong product appeal is regaining traction with consumers, with sales momentum improving in its three core markets—the U.S., Europe, and China.

UBS noted that Tesla’s aggressive rollout of the upgraded Model Y, combined with U.S. buyers rushing to benefit from the soon-to-expire tax credit, should drive particularly strong U.S. deliveries.

In Europe, Tesla’s deliveries in its top eight markets have risen about 22% quarter-on-quarter.

According to an independent Chinese auto tracking agency, Tesla’s weekly insurance registrations in China reached 17,300 during September 15–21, up nearly 13% from the prior week’s 15,350 and marking the highest weekly tally so far in Q3. Year-to-date in Q3, Tesla’s registrations in China (a close proxy for deliveries) are up 33% from Q2.

Dealers also report that Tesla’s new orders in China in September rose about 14% year-on-year to roughly 73,000 units, driven mainly by the launch of the new six-seat long-wheelbase Model YL SUV.