UBS Raises Gold Forecasts Through 2026, 2025 Rally Tops All Asset Classes

UBS has raised its gold price forecasts, with end-March 2026 now expected at $3,600/oz, up from $3,500/oz. The firm also introduced a new forecast of $3,700/oz for end-June 2026 and maintained its previous forecast of $3,500/oz for the same period. The 2025 rally has topped all asset classes.

Title: UBS Raises Gold Price Forecasts Amid Persistent US Macroeconomic Risks

UBS has significantly elevated its gold price forecasts for the end of March 2026, projecting a price of $3,600 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of $3,500 per ounce. The investment bank also introduced a new forecast of $3,700 per ounce for the end of June 2026, while maintaining its previous forecast of $3,500 per ounce for the same period [1].

The revised forecasts are underpinned by several factors, including persistent US macroeconomic risks, de-dollarization trends, and robust investment demand, particularly from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central banks. UBS expects sticky US inflation and below-trend growth to prompt the Federal Reserve to ease its policies, further supporting higher gold prices [2].

UBS has also raised its annual ETF gold demand forecast to nearly 600 metric tons from 450 metric tons, citing World Gold Council data showing the strongest first-half 2025 inflows since 2010. The bank anticipates that global gold demand will increase by 3% to 4,760 metric tons in 2025, marking the highest level since 2011 [3].

Despite recent fluctuations in gold prices, UBS strategists remain bullish on the metal, attributing the price rally to a cocktail of macroeconomic factors. These include high inflation, below-trend economic growth, and Federal Reserve policy easing, all of which are expected to drive gold prices higher [4].

The updated forecasts highlight the ongoing interest in gold as a safe haven asset, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over fiscal sustainability in the United States. Central banks worldwide are also expected to continue their strong gold purchasing trends, further bolstering demand [5].

References:
[1] https://www.miningweekly.com/article/ubs-raises-gold-target-price-for-end-march-2026-by-100-to-3-600oz-2025-08-19
[2] https://news.futunn.com/en/post/60786897/ubs-group-has-raised-its-mid-year-gold-price-forecast
[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/19/why-ubs-just-raised-its-gold-forecast-again-.html
[4] https://news.futunn.com/en/post/60791689/usd-3700-ubs-group-raises-gold-price-target-expecting-federal