UBS Raises Gold Forecast to $3,800 by 2025 Amid Geopolitical Risks and Trump's Rate Cuts Push
ByAinvest
Friday, Sep 12, 2025 5:55 am ET1min read
UBS--
Goldman Sachs, another major financial institution, has also raised its long-term gold price outlook to $3,300 per ounce by 2029, reflecting sustained upside in gold prices and gold equities [1]. This bullish outlook is supported by factors such as margin expansion in mining stocks, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties.
The Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts, driven by weak labor market data, are expected to reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive in a low-return environment [2]. Additionally, a weaker US dollar, driven by the Fed’s dovish stance and global economic uncertainty, has boosted global demand for gold [2].
Central banks have emerged as a significant force behind gold’s ascent, with global central bank purchases expected to reach 900 tonnes in 2025 [2]. This demand is concentrated in emerging markets, where nations are using gold to hedge against dollar exposure and stabilize foreign exchange reserves.
Geopolitical tensions, including US trade policy shifts and energy market volatility, have further eroded confidence in the dollar, reinforcing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset [2]. Inflationary pressures and the safe-haven appeal of gold have also contributed to its upward trajectory in 2025 [2].
For investors, the strategic positioning in gold ahead of the Fed’s rate cuts is compelling. With a 90% probability of a September cut and three additional reductions by year-end, the macroeconomic tailwinds are aligned with gold’s fundamentals [2]. Major institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, project gold prices could test $4,000 by mid-2026 [2].
However, risks remain. A surprise surge in inflation or stronger-than-expected economic data could delay rate cuts, capping gold’s upside. Nevertheless, the structural forces—dollar weakness, central bank demand, and inflationary pressures—provide a robust foundation for long-term bullish positioning in gold [2].
UBS has raised its gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce by 2025, citing geopolitical risks and the potential for lower interest rates. The investment bank expects renewed Federal Reserve rate cuts amid soft US labor data, which should boost gold prices. Additionally, UBS anticipates a weaker US dollar, further contributing to its gold price forecast.
UBS has revised its gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2025, citing geopolitical risks and the potential for lower interest rates. The investment bank expects renewed Federal Reserve rate cuts in response to soft US labor data, which should boost gold prices. Additionally, UBS anticipates a weaker US dollar, further contributing to its gold price forecast [2].Goldman Sachs, another major financial institution, has also raised its long-term gold price outlook to $3,300 per ounce by 2029, reflecting sustained upside in gold prices and gold equities [1]. This bullish outlook is supported by factors such as margin expansion in mining stocks, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties.
The Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts, driven by weak labor market data, are expected to reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive in a low-return environment [2]. Additionally, a weaker US dollar, driven by the Fed’s dovish stance and global economic uncertainty, has boosted global demand for gold [2].
Central banks have emerged as a significant force behind gold’s ascent, with global central bank purchases expected to reach 900 tonnes in 2025 [2]. This demand is concentrated in emerging markets, where nations are using gold to hedge against dollar exposure and stabilize foreign exchange reserves.
Geopolitical tensions, including US trade policy shifts and energy market volatility, have further eroded confidence in the dollar, reinforcing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset [2]. Inflationary pressures and the safe-haven appeal of gold have also contributed to its upward trajectory in 2025 [2].
For investors, the strategic positioning in gold ahead of the Fed’s rate cuts is compelling. With a 90% probability of a September cut and three additional reductions by year-end, the macroeconomic tailwinds are aligned with gold’s fundamentals [2]. Major institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, project gold prices could test $4,000 by mid-2026 [2].
However, risks remain. A surprise surge in inflation or stronger-than-expected economic data could delay rate cuts, capping gold’s upside. Nevertheless, the structural forces—dollar weakness, central bank demand, and inflationary pressures—provide a robust foundation for long-term bullish positioning in gold [2].
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