UBS Predicts $450 Price Target for Carvana, Sees 25% EBITDA Growth by 2030

UBS initiates coverage on Carvana with a Buy rating and a $450 price target, calling the online used-car seller a true disruptor in a market dominated by small dealers. The bank forecasts Carvana's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization for 2026 and 2027 at 5% above the Street and a 25% growth rate for the decade. Carvana controls just 1.5% of used-car sales but could reach 4% by 2030 and 8% within 10 years. The optimism is based on solid unit economics and a profit per car twice the industry average. Critics raise concerns about accounting and transparency, but Carvana's shares are up over 85% this year.