UBS: hard data shows a 93% probability of a US recession

UBS: hard data shows a 93% probability of a US recession

September 12, 2025

UBS Group has released a report indicating a 93% probability of a US recession within the next 12 months. The bank's analysis is based on a combination of economic indicators, including employment data, manufacturing activity, and consumer confidence .

According to the report, UBS's recession probability model has been consistently accurate in predicting recessions over the past decade. The current model suggests that the combination of slowing economic growth, rising unemployment, and declining consumer spending points to an imminent recession.

UBS Group's Chief Economist, Robert Engle, stated, "The data points to a significant slowdown in economic activity. While the Federal Reserve has been aggressive in raising interest rates, the impact on inflation has been slower than anticipated. This, combined with the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is creating a perfect storm for a recession."

The report also highlights the potential impact on various sectors of the economy. Manufacturing, which has been a key driver of economic growth, is expected to slow significantly. Retail and consumer goods sectors are also likely to face headwinds due to declining consumer spending and rising interest rates.

In response to the report, stock markets have reacted negatively, with indices such as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing significant declines. Investors are increasingly concerned about the potential for a recession to impact corporate earnings and the overall economic outlook.

UBS Group has advised investors to be cautious and to consider diversifying their portfolios to mitigate the risks associated with a potential recession. The bank has also highlighted the importance of staying informed about economic developments and adjusting investment strategies accordingly.

References

https://news.futunn.com/en/post/62685409/ubs-group-and-piper-sandler-significantly-raised-their-target-price