Ubiquiti Plunges 16.86% In Two Days As Technicals Signal Sustained Downtrend

Ubiquiti (UI) declined 3.45% to $402.80 on August 15, 2025, extending its two-day slide to 16.86% amidst elevated selling pressure. The following technical analysis evaluates key market dynamics across multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal a pronounced bearish momentum for Ubiquiti. The August 14 candle—a long-bodied red session with a high of $473.99 and close at $417.19—signaled strong rejection near the $474-$488 resistance zone established in early August. The subsequent August 15 candle closed near its low of $398, confirming bearish conviction. This $398-$400 area now acts as immediate psychological support. A decisive break below this level may trigger extended downside toward $370, while recovery requires reclaiming the $420 pivot point.
Moving Average Theory
Ubiquiti's trend structure has turned decisively bearish. The 50-day MA (approximately $440) crossed below the 100-day MA ($430) in late July, and both remain under the 200-day MA ($375). Prices are now trading well below all three averages, confirming a long-term downtrend. The moving average stack (200-day > 100-day > 50-day > price) exhibits a "bearish sequencing" pattern, suggesting sustained downward pressure. Any rebound would face stiff resistance near the 50-day MA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows accelerating negative momentum, with the signal line diverging sharply below zero after August 14's plunge. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator reflects extreme oversold conditions—both %K and %D are near 10—but has not yet signaled divergence. While oversold readings historically precede bounces, the absence of bullish divergence implies underlying weakness. Confluence between MACD’s bearish momentum and KDJ’s oversold state suggests potential near-term consolidation rather than immediate reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded dramatically on August 14 as prices breached the lower Bollinger Band (20-day SMA basis), closing 14% below the band—a statistical extreme. Although August 15’s session remained near the lower band, the lack of immediate recovery indicates persistent selling pressure. Band expansion typically precedes trend continuation, implying downside risk toward $380-$385. A close above the lower band is needed to signal stabilisation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged to 270,398 shares on August 14 (down 13.89%), the highest in three months, validating bearish conviction. Follow-through volume of 221,394 shares on August 15 remained elevated, confirming distribution. This contrasts with the modest volume during June-August uptrends, underscoring institutional exit. Until volume subsides on down days or expands on rallies, downside bias remains dominant.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 28 reflects deeply oversold conditions, nearing historical extremes. However, RSI has remained below 30 for two sessions without bullish divergence, indicating momentum remains skewed downward. While technical rebounds frequently occur from these levels, oversold RSI in a strong downtrend can persist, warranting caution against premature reversal calls.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $184.83 (August 27, 2024) and high of $488.79 (August 13, 2025), key retracement levels emerge: 23.6% ($372), 38.2% ($336), and 50% ($310). Current price action breaches the 23.6% level, targeting the 38.2% retracement near $336. The speed of descent suggests this level may be tested swiftly if $398 support fails. This aligns with the 200-day MA convergence at $375, reinforcing the zone’s technical significance.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence appears at $370-$380 (Bollinger Band projection, 200-day MA, and volume profile support). Bearish unanimity dominates across moving averages, MACD, volume, and Fibonacci targets. Minor divergence exists between oversold RSI/KDJ readings and price’s relentless decline—a condition that often precedes tactical rebounds but rarely arrests established trends without confirmation from other indicators. The lack of bullish candle patterns or volume reversal signals keeps the burden of proof on bears.