Uber Technologies Plunges 3.85%—Can Its Robotaxi Gambit Salvage Its Slump?

Summary
• Uber’s stock opened at $89.05 but tumbled to an intraday low of $86.36, closing at $87.1083, a 3.85% decline.
• Insider sales by CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah and Jill Hazelbaker totaled $3.496 million, signaling cautious positioning.
• The UK Supreme Court ruled against Uber’s appeal, denying a VAT tax exemption for rival taxi operators, complicating its regulatory landscape.
• Analysts remain bullish, with an average target of $100.71, but the stock’s 21.71 RSI suggests oversold conditions.

Uber Technologies (UBER) faces a turbulent day as its stock slumps amid a regulatory setback in the UK and mixed sector sentiment. The ride-hailing giant’s expansion into robotaxi services in Abu Dhabi—a strategic pivot—now contends with legal headwinds and investor skepticism. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $54.84 and a dynamic PE of 25.64, the market weighs whether its innovation can outpace structural challenges.

UK Supreme Court Ruling Undermines Uber’s Tax Strategy
Uber’s 3.85% intraday decline was catalyzed by the UK Supreme Court’s unanimous dismissal of its appeal to classify private-hire taxi operators as entering contracts with passengers. This ruling reverses a 2024 Court of Appeal decision that had granted Uber a VAT exemption, forcing it to comply with a 20% tax on non-London profit margins. The decision not only increases Uber’s operational costs but also undermines its argument for regulatory parity with competitors like Bolt, which recently secured a favorable VAT ruling. Analysts highlight that this legal ambiguity, combined with insider sales totaling $3.496 million, has eroded short-term investor confidence.

Passenger Transportation Sector Reels as Lyft Trails Uber’s Slide
The Passenger Transportation sector mirrored Uber’s decline, with sector leader Lyft (LYFT) down 1.165%. Both stocks face headwinds from regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic pressures. While Uber’s robotaxi expansion aims to differentiate it, Lyft’s focus on cost-cutting and margin stability has yet to translate into a clear advantage. The sector’s 200-day average of $82.66 suggests a bearish trend, with both companies struggling to balance innovation against profitability. Uber’s 52-week high of $97.71 now appears distant, highlighting the sector’s vulnerability to regulatory and operational risks.

GraniteShares 2x Long UBER ETF (UBRL) and August 8 Put Options Signal Strategic Entry Points
• GraniteShares 2x Long UBER Daily ETF (UBRL): Price $28.77 (-7.55%), leveraged exposure to UBER’s intraday swings.
• 200-day average: $76.96 (below current price), RSI: 21.71 (oversold), MACD: 0.4237 (bullish divergence from signal line 1.0178).
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $97.72, Middle $92.86, Lower $88.01 (current price near lower band, suggesting potential rebound).

Uber’s technicals present a compelling case for contrarian buyers. The 21.71 RSI indicates oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram (-0.5941) suggests a short-term reversal. For options, the UBER20250808C87 call and UBER20250808P85 put stand out. The call offers 25.20% leverage and a delta of 0.5216, ideal for a moderate rebound. The put, with 36.83% leverage and a delta of -0.3837, balances risk in a volatile environment. A 5% downside scenario (ST = $82.75) yields a UBER20250808C87 payoff of $0 (strike $87) and UBER20250808P85 payoff of $7.75 (strike $85).

• UBER20250808C87: Call option, strike $87, expiration 2025-08-08. IV 57.00%, leverage 25.20%, delta 0.5216 (moderate directional bias), theta -0.3241 (time decay), gamma 0.0463 (price sensitivity). High liquidity (turnover $96,727).
• UBER20250808P85: Put option, strike $85, expiration 2025-08-08. IV 55.13%, leverage 36.83%, delta -0.3837 (balanced risk), theta -0.0009 (minimal time decay), gamma 0.0459 (price sensitivity). High turnover ($177,201).

Aggressive bulls may consider UBER20250808C87 into a bounce above $89, while cautious bears could short UBER20250808P85 if $85 breaks. Both contracts offer high leverage and liquidity, aligning with Uber’s volatile profile.

Backtest Uber Technologies Stock Performance
After a -4% intraday plunge, UBER has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data reveals favorable win rates and returns for 3, 10, and 30 days following the event, with the maximum return reaching 7.74% over 30 days. This indicates that while the stock may experience short-term volatility, it often rebounds and can generate decent returns in the subsequent weeks.

Uber’s Robotaxi Hopes Hinge on Regulatory and Execution Clarity—Act Fast
Uber’s near-term trajectory depends on its ability to navigate regulatory setbacks and validate its robotaxi strategy. While the stock’s oversold RSI and bearish MACD histogram hint at a potential rebound, structural challenges—including the UK ruling and insider sales—persist. Investors should monitor the GraniteShares 2x Long UBER ETF (UBRL) and key levels like $89 (50-day SMA) and $85 (support). Sector leader Lyft (LYFT, -1.165%) offers a benchmark for risk tolerance. A decisive close above $89.16 (intraday high) could signal a short-covering rally, but a breakdown below $86.36 (intraday low) would confirm a bearish trend. Watch for $85 support or regulatory updates by August 8.