Uber Stock Surges 4.93% on Bullish Momentum, Technical Indicators Signal Continued Uptrend

Uber Technologies has experienced a recent upward trend, with the stock rising 3.09% in the most recent session and accumulating a 4.93% gain over three consecutive days. This momentum is supported by elongated bullish candlesticks, particularly in the last week, where closing prices have consistently outperformed intraday lows. Key support levels appear to congregate around $93.71 (a recent low from September 12) and $90.99 (August 5), while resistance is forming near $98.85 (September 15 high). The pattern suggests a potential continuation of the uptrend, though a breakdown below $93.71 could trigger a retest of earlier support levels.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated from the 12–15 September data) sits above the 200-day line, indicating a bullish bias in the medium to long term. The 100-day MA aligns closely with the 50-day, reinforcing the upward trajectory. However, the 200-day MA, which acts as a critical trendline, remains a key reference point: if the price dips below this level, it could signal a shift in sentiment. The convergence of short-term averages above the long-term suggests that the stock is in a phase of accelerating momentum, with potential for further gains unless the 200-day MA becomes a barrier.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown positive divergence in recent sessions, with the line crossing above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. The KDJ oscillator, however, reveals a mixed signal: while the %K line has approached overbought territory (above 80), the %D line has not yet crossed the same threshold, suggesting a potential delay in exhaustion. This divergence implies that although the stock is overbought, the trend remains intact. Caution is warranted if the %K line fails to sustain above 80, as it may indicate a short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked in the last two weeks, with the bands expanding significantly. The price has recently tested the upper band, which currently sits near $98.85, suggesting a breakout scenario. The narrowest band contraction occurred in late August, followed by a sharp expansion, aligning with the recent rally. If the price remains above the 20-day MA and within the upper band, the uptrend is likely to persist. Conversely, a close below the middle band could signal a reversion to mean.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during the recent rally, particularly on the 3.09% gain session, with over 18.6 million shares traded. This validates the strength of the price action. However, volume has not shown a consistent surge on every upday, indicating some unevenness in buying pressure. A declining volume profile during consolidation phases may suggest waning conviction, which could precede a correction. For now, the volume patterns align with the bullish narrative.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has climbed into overbought territory (>70) for the first time in weeks, reflecting the stock’s rapid ascent. While this is a cautionary signal, historical context is critical: in a strong uptrend, RSI can remain overbought for extended periods. A sustained close below 60 would likely confirm a pause in the rally, but a continued rise above 70 may indicate that the trend is not yet exhausted. Divergence between price highs and RSI peaks could provide an early warning of a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the August 5 low ($82.47) to the September 15 high ($98.85) include 38.2% at $93.50 and 50% at $90.66. These levels have acted as dynamic support during recent pullbacks, with the 38.2% retracement currently under test. A breakdown below $93.50 could accelerate a test of the 50% level, potentially triggering a deeper correction. Conversely, a rebound above $98.85 would extend the uptrend, targeting the 61.8% level at $96.00.

Backtest Hypothesis

A strategy based on selling UBER when RSI exceeds 70 has historically underperformed, with a CAGR of -0.82% and a total return of -2.96% over the tested period. This aligns with the observed pattern of RSI remaining overbought during strong trends, where selling signals generated by overbought conditions led to missed gains. The strategy’s negative Sharpe ratio (-0.06) and maximum drawdown of 13.93% highlight its risk profile. However, combining RSI with other indicators—such as volume validation or Fibonacci retracement levels—could improve reliability. For instance, a sell signal might be more effective when RSI is overbought and volume declines, or when the price fails to hold above a key Fibonacci level. This confluence approach could reduce false signals and align with the stock’s tendency to trend.