Uber Stock Nears Return to Record Highs With Earnings On Deck: 3 Numbers to Watch

As uber (UBER) approaches its upcoming earnings report on May 7, 2025, investors are closely watching whether the ride-hailing giant can reclaim its all-time stock price high of $86.34, set in October 2024. While the stock closed at $65.97 in January 2025 and hit a year-to-date high of $73.06 by March, forecasts suggest it could surge to $111.88 by May’s end—a 70% jump from its 2024 lows. This article dissects three critical metrics investors should monitor ahead of the earnings call and evaluates whether Uber’s stock is poised to outperform.

1. Earnings Per Share (EPS): A 259% Surge?

Analysts project Uber’s Q1 2025 EPS to hit $0.51, a staggering 259% increase from the -$0.32 reported in Q1 2024. This rebound reflects improved profitability across Uber’s core ride-sharing business and its food-delivery unit, Uber Eats. The company has also benefited from cost-cutting measures and higher pricing power in a rebounding economy.

A miss on this metric could dent confidence, but a beat—especially if Uber raises guidance—could push shares toward the $120 mark, as forecasted for mid-2025.

Ask Aime: "Will Uber stock surpass its all-time high with Q1 2025 earnings?"

2. Gross Bookings Growth: 17%–21% Guidance

Uber’s management has guided for 17%–21% year-over-year growth in Q1 gross bookings, despite headwinds from foreign exchange fluctuations. In 2024, gross bookings rose 21% YoY in Q4, driven by strong demand in international markets like Europe and Southeast Asia.

Investors will scrutinize whether Uber can sustain this momentum. A bookings figure at the top end of guidance would signal resilience in its core markets and validate its expansion into emerging economies.

3. Adjusted EBITDA: A 60% Jump in 2024’s Q4

In Q4 2024, Uber’s adjusted EBITDA surged 60% YoY to $1.4 billion, marking a record quarter for profitability. This metric is critical because it strips out non-cash expenses and one-time charges, revealing Uber’s operational efficiency.

Analysts expect Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA to remain robust, potentially exceeding $1.2 billion. A strong result here would reinforce Uber’s ability to scale profitably, a key concern for long-term investors.

The Bigger Picture: Can Uber Sustain the Rally?

While the May 2025 forecast of $111.88 appears aggressive compared to historical trends, it aligns with long-term bullish sentiment. The stock’s 52-week range (as of March 2025) was $54.84 to $87.00, but the +74% annual return forecast for 2025 hinges on execution.

Risks remain, including competition from DoorDash (DASH) in food delivery and regulatory pressures. However, Uber’s diversified platform—combining rides, food, and freight—gives it a structural advantage. If earnings deliver, the stock could not only reclaim its 2024 high but also set a new record, potentially hitting $134.58 by late 2025, as projected in the text.

Conclusion

Uber’s stock is at a pivotal juncture. With a $111.88 May 2025 forecast, a Q1 EPS beat, and robust EBITDA growth, the path to surpassing its $86.34 all-time high is clear—if the company executes. Investors should focus on three key metrics:
1. EPS of $0.51+, signaling profitability.
2. Gross bookings growth at 21%, proving market dominance.
3. Adjusted EBITDA of $1.2B+, validating cost discipline.

While volatility is inevitable—May’s forecast high of $120.83 and low of $102.93 highlight this—the fundamental narrative is bullish. If Uber meets or exceeds these targets, its stock could not only reclaim its former peak but also position itself for sustained growth in a tech sector hungry for winners. The earnings call on May 7 will be the first test.

Data sources: Provided research text, Uber’s 2024–2025 financial summaries, and stock price forecasts.