Uber's Resilience in the Robotaxi Era: Why Analysts See $106 and Institutional Confidence is Key

As Cantor Fitzgerald upgrades Uber's price target to $106, the focus shifts to how the rideshare giant is navigating the nascent robotaxi competition led by Tesla. Analysts argue that while Tesla's autonomous ambitions pose a long-term challenge, Uber's core mobility business and institutional backing position it to weather near-term storms. Here's why investors should take note.

The Cantor Fitzgerald Upgrade: A Vote of Confidence
Cantor Fitzgerald's decision to raise Uber's price target to $106 from $96, while maintaining an Overweight rating, underscores a critical insight: Tesla's robotaxi rollout, while groundbreaking, is still years away from meaningfully disrupting the rideshare market. The firm emphasized that autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption will be gradual, with Tesla's current limited deployment in Austin—using safety-monitored Model Ys—marking just the first step.

Tesla's stock surged 9.2% on news of its robotaxi launch, reflecting investor optimism about its $951 billion revenue opportunity by 2029. However, Cantor analysts note that Uber's valuation isn't yet being meaningfully dented by these developments. Instead, the focus remains on Uber's ability to grow its core rides and delivery businesses, which analysts term “irons in the fire.”

Uber's Strategic Edge: Diversification and Institutional Momentum
Uber's diversified operations—spanning mobility, delivery, and freight—act as a buffer against AV competition. While Tesla's Cybercab (a steering-wheel-free EV planned for 2026) could eventually disrupt traditional ridesharing, Uber's broader ecosystem allows it to capitalize on adjacent markets. For instance, its delivery arm, Uber Eats, has consistently outperformed peers like DoorDash in unit economics, and its freight business offers steady cash flows.

Institutional investors, holding 80% of Uber's shares, are betting on this resilience. Despite minor insider sales—such as CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah reducing his stake—the overall trend reflects confidence in Uber's fundamentals. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald have also raised their 2025 EPS estimate to $2.69, a sign that Uber's operational levers are working.

The Risks: AV Timelines and Regulatory Uncertainty
The elephant in the room remains Tesla's long-term dominance. Analysts like Wedbush's Dan Ives praise Tesla's “comfortable, safe, and personalized” robotaxi experience, which could scale rapidly thanks to its data moat and vertically integrated software. Tesla's plan to deploy millions of autonomous vehicles by 2026, combined with its $1.13 trillion market cap, signals it won't be easily deterred.

Regulatory hurdles, however, could slow the pace. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) fragmented framework for autonomous vehicles—still in early stages—adds uncertainty. Even Tesla's June 2025 milestone—a fully autonomous Model Y delivery—required exemptions from current rules, highlighting the path ahead.

Investment Thesis: Near-Term Upside, Long-Term Caution
The “Moderate Buy” consensus reflects a balanced view: Uber's stock is primed for gains in the next 12–18 months, driven by core business growth and institutional buying trends. The 52-week trading range ($54.84–$94.38) suggests volatility, but Cantor's $106 target implies a 12% upside from current levels.

Investors should monitor two key metrics: Uber's rides and delivery growth rates (to confirm “irons in the fire” are firing) and Tesla's regulatory progress. A breakthrough in autonomous vehicle approvals could accelerate AV adoption, compressing Uber's valuation. Conversely, delays would extend Uber's runway.

Final Take
Uber's story is no longer just about ridesharing—it's about proving that diversification and institutional support can offset existential threats. While Tesla's robotaxi ambitions are undeniable, the timeline favors Uber's near-term narrative. Investors seeking exposure to a resilient tech play with a $191 billion market cap should consider a position here—but keep an eye on the road ahead.

Investment advice: Hold or accumulate Uber for the next 12 months, with a focus on core business metrics. Proceed with caution if Tesla's autonomous rollout accelerates beyond current expectations.