Uber's Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Contradictions Emerge on AV Deployment, Insurance Costs, and Uber One Membership Growth

Guidance:

• Q4 expected to deliver high‑teens gross bookings growth.
• Q4 adjusted EBITDA expected to grow low‑to‑mid 30s percent year‑over‑year.
• Company reiterates 3‑year framework: mid‑to‑high‑teens gross bookings growth and high‑30s to 40% EBITDA CAGR.

Business Commentary:

• Strong Financial Performance and Growth:
• Uber Technologies Inc. reported record adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow for Q3 2025.
• Trips grew by 22%, marking the fastest growth since 2023, and gross bookings increased by 21%.
• The growth was driven by innovation, execution, and strategic focus on increasing audience and engagement.

• Cross-Platform Strategy and Membership Program:
• Uber saw strong growth in cross-platform usage, with 3x more spending by multi-platform consumers compared to single-platform users.
• The Uber One membership program has 36 million members, contributing significantly to revenue with benefits like 6% cashback on rides.
• The program enhances customer retention and engagement, although it is initially profit-negative in the first six months.

• Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Integration and Partnerships:
• Uber formed a strategic partnership with NVIDIA, aiming to create a reference architecture for L4-ready autonomous vehicles.
• The company is deploying 100,000 vehicles, with a focus on scaling the usage of AVs on its platform.

• The integration will improve safety and efficiency, with AVs expected to drive higher revenue per car per day.

• Expansion into Local Commerce and Grocery Retail:

• Grocery retail now contributes an approximately $12 billion gross bookings run rate, growing significantly faster than restaurant delivery.
• Uber is expanding into grocery retail and local commerce to diversify revenue streams and tap into new market segments.
• This expansion is designed to deepen customer relationships and drive growth through new demand channels.
  

  Sentiment Analysis:

  Overall Tone: Positive

  • Management called Q3 “an outstanding quarter,” reporting trips +22% and gross bookings +21%, with “record adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.” CFO: adjusted EBITDA was up 33% YoY and margins reached 4.5% of GB (≈+40 bps YoY). Guidance reiterates continued high‑teens GB growth and low‑to‑mid‑30s EBITDA growth for Q4.

Q&A:

• Question from Douglas Anmuth (JPMorgan Chase & Co): Dara, can you just talk about the path to increase the 20% of MAPC season markets where you have Mobility and Delivery, they use Uber One and you talk about these drivers of cross-platform usage. And then could you expand on the recently announced NVIDIA partnership. Both of you have invested in several AV tech providers. You've also talked about deploying 100,000 vehicles. Can you talk about the time line and then who will own the fleet in that scenario?
  Response: Drive cross‑platform adoption via UI integrations, personalized upsells and membership; NVIDIA/Hyperion partnership standardizes L4 hardware/software to scale AVs; Uber may fund early fleets but expects vehicles to be financialized (fleet owners/REITs/private equity) over time.

• Question from Eric Sheridan (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.): On the Delivery side of the business, as you continue to widen out the array of what you're offering users, can you talk a little bit about how much of that is a stimulant to new user growth for Uber Eats or a driver of increased frequency across the broader platform, just to better understand where the sort of the output of the yield is showing up in the business. And then on the AV side, maybe the building on Doug's question, where you've rolled out AVs today, what have you learned so far with respect to the impact of more supply on the road and how it helps either stimulate demand or impact on the pricing side?
  Response: Grocery/retail is bringing new users and growing faster than food delivery (now a ~$12B run rate), boosting frequency and acquisition; AV rollouts (Waymo) show faster market growth and higher driver earnings in markets like Austin/Atlanta, but it’s early to claim causality.

• Question from Brian Nowak (Morgan Stanley): I have two, one on Mobility and one on Delivery. The first one on Mobility, the U.S. business seems to be doing very well again. Just curious for any further color on progress you're making in the urban versus suburban strategy or the sparse city strategy that you talked about call it, 6 or 9 months ago, sort of drivers of that growth and the nice trip growth you're seeing in the U.S., urban versus suburban. Now in Food Delivery, any color you can give us about the European Food Delivery Business. One of your competitors is going to be entering a couple of those markets potentially a little more aggressively to come. How do you sort of think about the key investment areas into '26 you're focused on in the European Food Delivery Business?
  Response: Sparse‑geography expansion (availability, reliability, product‑fit like Wait & Save) is driving outsized Mobility growth (sparse geographies ~1.5x growth); in Europe Uber is a category leader and will keep investing in merchant selection, service quality, cross‑sell and membership to defend and gain share.

• Question from Justin Post (BofA Securities): Just would love to hear you talk about the margin flow-through in the quarter if you made any extra investments? And then second, you're thinking about the investments you're going to need over the next 12, 18 months to really scale your AV business? And could that impact Mobility margins?
  Response: Q3 EBITDA rose 33% YoY and margin reached 4.5% of GB (+~40bps YoY); management will moderate margin expansion to fund opportunities—AV will be loss‑making for years, funded by premium margins and balance‑sheet investments, with overall Mobility margins managed via a barbell strategy.

• Question from Ronald Josey (Citigroup Inc.): Maybe sticking with the investment theme, but a to your point on lifetime investments. I think in the letter, you talked about suggested some short-term investments for loyalty gains. Can you help us understand a little bit more on these loyalty gains on the Uber One benefits? Clearly, you've talked about cross-platform. And then back on U.S. trip growth which accelerated affordability, the barbell approach totally get it. Talk to us about insurance rates and then the benefits from newer driver or newer riders like seniors and teens.
  Response: Uber One drives retention and higher spend (members spending more; cohorts improve), is initially profit‑negative but becomes profitable after ~6+ months; insurance strategy (legislative wins, driver telematics, advantage mode, captive/commercial negotiation) should yield hundreds of millions in savings to pass to customers and lower fares.

• Question from Ross Sandler (Barclays Bank PLC): Just wanted to ask about the new multiple gig initiatives. So what are some of the areas that you're looking into for new work, new earnings potential? And stepping back, how it this initiative impact things like driver retention or overall profitability for Uber compared to just kind of operating only the two areas of earnings that we're in today?
  Response: Multiple‑gig initiatives (Uber AI Solutions) will create higher‑paying digital tasks—annotating data, training/rating AI models and other work—broadening earners’ opportunities, improving retention and creating a potential new profitable revenue stream.

• Question from John Colantuoni (Jefferies LLC): First, can you talk about any key capabilities provided by the Toast partnership? And how it fits into your broader framework for leveraging partnerships to help drive growth and profitability. And second, Prashanth, maybe you can talk about the rationale for shifting some of the non-GAAP metrics. And for the move from adjusted EBITDA to adjusted operating income, specifically does this have any reflection on your ramp in capital investments in the Autonomous Vehicle space?
  Response: Toast integration automates POS→Eats onboarding (menus, images), simplifying merchant setup and marketing to expand restaurant footprint; the shift to adjusted operating income improves comparability and reflects real costs for LOB accountability—it's an evolution in reporting, not a direct signal of increased AV capex.

• Question from Nikhil Devnani (Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.): I had a couple, please. So first, I wanted to follow up on the strong results in Mobility. And I'm just wondering, did the upside primarily come from the moderation in insurance pressure? Or were there other network improvements that unlocked the growth in the quarter as well. I think the letter talks about driver supply and product uptake. So just trying to understand the relative contribution from those additional factors and how they might continue to stack in your favor into '26? And then my second question is on AVs. Dara, can you speak a little bit about the scale and quality of real-world data that you're able to contribute? It seems like that's a core constraint for a lot of AV companies. and you can help chip away at that problem. So I'm curious to hear how you're going about tackling that.
  Response: Mobility upside is trips‑led—audience expansion and product innovations (low‑cost products, wait/save, premium mix) drove growth more than a single factor; Uber is actively collecting scalable, high‑quality AV real‑world data via its rideshare fleet and partnerships (NVIDIA, Waymo) and plans to scale sensor stacks and data collection to accelerate AV development.

Contradiction Point 1

AV Deployment and Partnership Strategy

It highlights differing perspectives on the timeline and strategy for deploying autonomous vehicles, which are crucial for Uber's future growth and technological advancements.

What strategies are being used to boost engagement through Uber One's Mobility/Delivery services? What is the timeline for deploying 100,000 AVs under the NVIDIA partnership? - Douglas Anmuth (JPMorgan)

2025Q3: Deployment of 100,000 vehicles is ongoing, with initial partnerships like Stellantis. Eventually, fleet ownership could be financialized, with Uber initially providing capital support. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

What drove the growth in MAPC and Uber One membership, and how will AV rides and Waymo utilization evolve? - Brian Nowak (Morgan Stanley)

2025Q2: Uber invested $5.5 billion in total, with $2.5 billion in Waymo and $3 billion in AV and other autonomous technologies. Given the continued pace of technology development, it is still early to determine the pace and scale of AV deployment. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

AV Pricing and Earnings Health

It involves differing statements on AV pricing and driver earnings, which are crucial for the sustainability and growth of the autonomous vehicle segment.

How is Delivery expansion driving user growth and usage frequency? - Eric Sheridan (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q3: Driver earnings are healthy. - Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah(CFO)

How did the Rides segment's 2023 growth compare to your expectations and the rest of the industry? - Mahesh coordinating (Credit Suisse)

2024Q4: Pricing was relatively stable. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Insurance Costs and Impact on Rides

It concerns the impact of insurance costs on mobility rides, which directly affects Uber's operating expenses and consumer pricing strategy.

What is the strategy for Uber One and its benefits? How do insurance rates and new driver/rider adoption affect growth? - Ronald Josey(Citi)

2025Q3: Insurance improvements include legislative changes and driver behavior incentives, expected to reduce fares in 2026. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO) and Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah(CFO)

Have insurance challenges passed for Uber, and which company is closest to Waymo in large-scale AV deployment? - Mark Mahaney(Evercore)

2025Q1: Insurance increases are now expected to be a modest headwind in the high single-digit range. Efforts in safety tech and policy reform are expected to drive further cost reductions. - Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah(CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Mobility Seasonality and Market Share Growth

It highlights differing expectations and performance in the Mobility segment, which is critical for revenue growth and market positioning.

How will Uber One boost engagement in Mobility and Delivery? - Douglas Anmuth (JPMorgan)

2025Q3: We expect to gain share later in the year. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

Can you explain the seasonal trends in the mobility business and how they affect the full-year revenue and margin outlook? - Kerry Holding (RBC Capital Markets)

2024Q4: We expect Q1 to be down y-o-y for mobility - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Uber One Membership Growth and Strategy

It reveals differing perspectives on the growth and strategy of Uber One, which is a key component of Uber's business model and customer retention.

Can you elaborate on Uber One’s strategy and benefits? How do insurance rates and new driver/rider dynamics impact growth? - Ronald Josey(Citi)

2025Q3: Uber One is growing with 36 million members, offering benefits like 6% cash back. Early profits are negative but improve as members mature. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

What drove the faster growth in MAPC and Uber One memberships, and how do you see AV rides and Waymo utilization evolving? - Brian Nowak (Morgan Stanley)

2025Q2: Uber One membership grew by 60%, now 36 million members. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)