Uber's Q3 2025: Contradictions Emerge on AV Utilization, Uber One Growth, and Freight Strategy

Date of Call: None provided

Financials Results

• Operating Margin: Adjusted EBITDA margin 4.5% of gross bookings, up ~40 basis points year-over-year

Guidance:

• Q4 expected to deliver another quarter of high‑teens gross bookings growth.
• Q4 adjusted EBITDA growth expected to be low‑ to mid‑30s year‑over‑year.
• Maintain three‑year framework: mid‑to‑high‑teens gross bookings growth and high 30–40% EBITDA CAGR.
• Expect to realize insurance‑related savings and pass material fare reductions to U.S. customers in 2026.
• Continued investment in AVs: losses expected for several years while scaling via partnerships and balance‑sheet support.

Business Commentary:

Strong Financial Performance:* - Uber reported Q3 2025 as an outstanding quarter with 22% growth in trips, marking their fastest growth since 2023. - Mobility trips grew by 21%, exceeding expectations, while gross bookings increased by 21%, and average pricing remained relatively flat. - This performance was driven by innovation and execution, fueled by record audience engagement and record adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.

• Cross-Platform Strategy:
• Uber has seen an increase in cross-platform behavior, with Uber Eats users who also use mobility services spending three times as much as single-product users.
• Uber is implementing strategies to drive cross-platform usage, including personalized experiences and membership benefits.

• This strategy aims to increase engagement and retention by offering a cohesive, seamless user experience across multiple platforms.

• Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Partnerships and Development:

• Uber has partnered with NVIDIA to develop a reference architecture for L4-ready autonomous vehicles, aligning with a future where every new car is L4-ready.
• The partnership aims to create a safer driving environment and increase the supply of available autonomous vehicles on the Uber platform.

• This development supports Uber's goal of integrating AVs into its ride-sharing platform while enhancing safety and reducing human error.

• Delivery and Grocery Expansion:

• Uber's delivery business saw its fastest growth in four years, driven by expansion into grocery and retail, now at an approximately $12 billion gross bookings run rate.
• Grocery and retail are growing faster than restaurant delivery, contributing positively to variable contribution.
• The expansion into new verticals is attracting new users and complementing the delivery business, enhancing cross-platform usage and member engagement.
  

  Sentiment Analysis:

  Overall Tone: Positive

  • CEO: "Q3 was an outstanding quarter... record adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow." CFO: "EBITDA was up 33% YoY; margins hit an all‑time high at 4.5% of GBs, up roughly 40 bps YoY." Management repeatedly projects continued high‑teens GB growth and strong EBITDA expansion.

Q&A:

• Question from Doug Anmuth (JPMorgan Chase): Can you talk about the path to increase the ~20% cross‑platform penetration where you operate both mobility and delivery, drivers of Uber One and cross‑platform usage? Also expand on the NVIDIA partnership, AV deployment timeline, and who will own the fleets?
  Response: Drive cross‑platform via UX changes, personalized upsells and membership (Uber One); NVIDIA/Hyperion provides an L4 reference stack (Stellantis initial 5,000 vehicles) to scale AVs; fleets likely to be financialized (third‑party owners/REIT‑like fleets) though Uber may initially invest with its balance sheet.

• Question from Eric Sheridan (Goldman Sachs): On delivery, how much does expanding offerings stimulate new user growth versus frequency? And on AVs, what have you learned about supply on the road affecting demand or pricing where AVs have rolled out?
  Response: Grocery and retail are bringing new users and higher frequency (now a ~$12B run rate, growing faster than restaurant delivery); AVs (Waymo markets) show faster market growth and higher driver earnings where deployed, but causality is not yet proven—early positive signal.

• Question from Brian Nowak/Ross Sandler (Morgan Stanley/Bernstein): Any color on urban vs suburban/sparse strategy driving U.S. mobility growth? And on European food delivery, how will you invest into 2026 against competition?
  Response: Sparse geographies are growing ~1.5x denser markets; tailored products (e.g., Wait & Save) expand availability/reliability and penetration; in Europe Uber is gaining category share and will invest in merchant selection, service reliability, cross‑sell and membership to defend/grow position.

• Question from Justin Post (Bank of America): Describe margin flow‑through this quarter, any extra investments, and will AV scaling investments impact mobility margins over the next 12–18 months?
  Response: Q3 EBITDA up 33% YoY with margins at 4.5% of GBs (up ~40 bps); management will moderate margin expansion to fund strategic investments; AV will be loss‑making for several years but will be funded via a barbell strategy (premium margins + balance‑sheet support).

• Question from Ron Josey (Citi): Can you detail loyalty gains from Uber One and short‑term investments; and comment on insurance rates and benefits from newer drivers/riders?
  Response: Uber One (36M+ members) boosts engagement and retention—initial months can be margin‑negative but cohorts become profitable over time; insurance progress (legislative wins, Driving Insights, Advantage mode, captive negotiations) should yield hundreds of millions in savings to enable lower U.S. fares.

• Question from Ross Sandler (Bernstein): Describe the multiple gigs initiative — what new earning opportunities and impact on driver retention and profitability?
  Response: Uber AI Solutions offers diversified, higher‑paying tasks (AI labeling/annotation, voice/video work) to both existing and new earners, improving retention and creating a nascent but potentially profitable new revenue/earning channel.

• Question from John Pellantoni (Jefferies): What capabilities does the Toast partnership provide and why shift metrics from adjusted EBITDA to adjusted operating income/adjusted EPS?
  Response: Toast integration streamlines restaurant onboarding (menu/photo sync, faster listing) and aids international expansion; metric shift improves comparability, reflects real costs (depreciation, SBC), holds LOB leaders accountable and reflects company maturity—not a signal of AV capex change.

• Question from Nikhil Devnani (Bernstein): Did mobility upside come from moderated insurance pressure or other network/product improvements, and how are you leveraging your rideshare scale to collect AV real‑world data?
  Response: Mobility upside is trips‑led—audience expansion (mobility audience ~150M) plus product innovations (low‑cost and premium wings) drove growth; Uber leverages its rideshare footprint and AV partnerships (NVIDIA, sensor stacks, SIM/simulation) to scale high‑quality real‑world data collection.

Contradiction Point 1

AV Utilization and Growth Impact

It directly impacts expectations regarding the utilization and growth impact of Autonomous Vehicles, which are crucial for strategic decision-making and investor expectations.

Was the mobility growth driven by reduced insurance pressure or other network improvements? Regarding AVs, what is the scale and quality of your real-world data contributions? - Nikhil Devnani(Bernstein)

2025Q3: AV data collection is ongoing, enhancing partnerships and accelerating AV development. - Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah(CFO) and Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

What drove the growth in MAPC and Uber One members? What changes have occurred, and how is AV deployment progressing? - Brian Thomas Nowak(Morgan Stanley)

2025Q2: AV deployment is early, but Waymo vehicles are 99th percentile in terms of utilization. Partner launches in Austin and Atlanta are going well, and Waymo has a positive impact on overall system utilization. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Uber One Growth and Member Benefit

It involves the growth and member benefits of Uber One, which are important for customer acquisition and retention strategies.

How are Uber One benefits driving loyalty gains? What are the current insurance rate trends? Are new driver and rider demographics like seniors and teens contributing to growth? - Ron Josey(Citi)

2025Q3: Early stages are profit-negative but improve over time. Partnerships enhance membership value. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

What drove growth in MAPC and Uber One members? Are there changes in these programs, and how is AV deployment progressing? - Brian Thomas Nowak(Morgan Stanley)

2025Q2: Uber One has 36 million members and is growing 60%. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Insurance Pressure and Consumer Response

It involves the impact of insurance pressures on consumer pricing and growth, which are critical for business strategy and financial projections.

How can you increase the 20% map usage in mobility/delivery markets for Uber One and what drives cross-platform usage? Can you elaborate on the recent NVIDIA partnership? With your investments in AV tech providers and the 100,000-vehicle deployment, what is the timeline, and who will own the fleets? - Doug Anmuth(JPMorgan Chase)

2025Q3: Consumers appreciate the insurance savings, showing positive in-session and delayed effects in pricing. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

What are the key opportunities for U.S. mobility, and how will Uber leverage its technical capabilities? - Benjamin Thomas Black(Deutsche Bank AG)

2025Q2: Growth was driven by increased audience and frequency. - Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah(CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

AV Market and Expansion Strategy

It highlights differing perspectives on the expansion strategy and the market potential for AVs, which could impact Uber's strategic direction and investment decisions.

Can you clarify the ownership of the fleets and the timeline involved? - Doug Anmuth (JPMorgan Chase)

2025Q3: The ownership of these fleets is likely to be financially structured, potentially involving yield vehicles similar to REITs. - Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO)

How should we assess Austin's fleet size and U.S. mobility growth trends? - Brian Nowak (Morgan Stanley)

2025Q1: In Austin, our focus is on high utilization and excellent service. Growth is steady, not aiming for incremental trips but reliable service. - Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Strategic Direction for Freight

It involves changes in Uber's strategic direction for the Freight segment, which impacts its financial goals and operational focus.

Can you discuss the path to increasing the 20% map usage in mobility and delivery markets via Uber One and the drivers of cross-platform usage? - Doug Anmuth (JPMorgan Chase)

2025Q3: The strategic review for Freight is nearly complete, with decisions expected to be announced soon. The review emphasizes strategic options and portfolio optimization, considering divestiture, scaling back, or investing. - Dara Khosrowshahi(CEO)

Could you elaborate on the Freight segment's strategic direction, especially the integration with Uber Works and leveraging courier resources? - Questioner's Name (Company Name)

2024Q4: Freight integration with Uber Works is progressing well, leveraging the existing pool of couriers. Expansion into logistics is focused on planning, execution, and integration to improve efficiency and reduce costs. Positive momentum observed with strong order growth and pricing improvement. - Lior Ron(SVP, Freight)