Uber Plunges 2.87%—What’s Behind the Sudden Sell-Off Amid Record Earnings?

Summary
• Uber Technologies (UBER) slumps 2.87% to $86.82, erasing gains from a $20B share buyback and Q2 earnings beat.
• Q2 revenue hits $12.65B, up 18% YoY, with $1.5B operating income and $2.1B adjusted EBITDA.
• Intraday range of $86.65–$90.81 highlights sharp post-earnings reversal.
• Sector peers like LYFT (-4.44%) amplify market skepticism.
Uber’s stock faces a critical juncture after a blockbuster earnings report. Despite record revenue, profitability, and a massive buyback, shares have cratered post-earnings. The move defies conventional logic, raising questions about profit-taking, macroeconomic fears, or structural doubts about the ride-hailing giant’s long-term potential.

Earnings Optimism Clashes with Market Realism
Uber’s Q2 results were a masterclass in execution: 18% revenue growth, 82% operating income surge, and a $20B share repurchase authorization. Yet, the stock’s 2.87% decline suggests investors are prioritizing caution over celebration. The sell-off aligns with broader market jitters over rate hikes and sector rotation out of tech. While CEO Dara Khosrowshahi highlighted platform scalability, the market may be pricing in near-term margin pressures from expansion in autonomous tech and global operations. Additionally, the stock’s 52-week high of $97.71 remains a distant target, fueling short-term profit-taking.

Transportation Services Sector Weakness as LYFT Trails Behind
The Transportation Services sector, led by LYFT (-4.44%), mirrors Uber’s bearish sentiment. Both companies face margin compression from rising driver incentives and operational costs. While Uber’s adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 4.5%, LYFT’s struggles with delivery unit profitability and regulatory headwinds have dampened sector sentiment. The broader sell-off reflects investor skepticism about the sustainability of growth in on-demand mobility amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

UBRL ETF and Options Playbook for Volatility
• GraniteShares 2x Long UBER Daily ETF (UBRL): -6.09%
• RSI: 44.72 (neutral)
• MACD: -0.5876 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.0860
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $85.24 (support), current price near lower band
• 200D MA: $77.16 (far below current price)
Uber’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias. Key support at $85.24 (lower Bollinger band) and resistance at $90.96 (middle Bollinger band). The 2x leveraged ETF UBRL could amplify downside risk if the stock breaks below $85.24. For options, focus on high-leverage puts with moderate deltas and strong gamma/theta profiles.
• UBER20250815P82.5 (Put):
- Strike: $82.50, IV: 39.21%, Leverage: 155.93%, Delta: -0.1774, Theta: -0.0059, Gamma: 0.0459, Turnover: 53,858
- IV (Implied Volatility): High volatility expectations
- Leverage (Return Potential): Amplifies downside gains
- Delta (Price Sensitivity): Moderate sensitivity to price drops
- Theta (Time Decay): Low decay, ideal for short-term moves
- Gamma (Delta Sensitivity): Strong responsiveness to price swings
- Turnover (Liquidity): High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit
- Payoff: If UBER drops 5% to $82.47, this put would yield ~$0.03 per contract. Ideal for aggressive short-term bearish bets.
• UBER20250815P83 (Put):
- Strike: $83.00, IV: 39.36%, Leverage: 130.33%, Delta: -0.2035, Theta: -0.0026, Gamma: 0.0497, Turnover: 4,391
- IV: High volatility expectations
- Leverage: Strong return potential
- Delta: Slightly higher sensitivity to price drops
- Theta: Minimal time decay
- Gamma: High responsiveness to price swings
- Turnover: Sufficient liquidity
- Payoff: A 5% drop to $82.47 would yield ~$0.53 per contract. Offers a balance between leverage and liquidity.
Hook: If UBER breaks below $85.24, UBER20250815P82.5 offers a high-leverage bearish play. Aggressive bulls may consider UBER20250815C87 into a bounce above $87.50.

Backtest Uber Technologies Stock Performance
The backtest of Uber's (UBER) performance after an intraday plunge of at least 3% shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-day win rate is 51.15%, with an average return of 0.44%, indicating that half of the time, UBER rebounds within 3 days. The 10-day win rate is higher at 53.28%, with an average return of 1.42%. Over 30 days, the win rate is 59.84%, with an average return of 4.02%. The maximum return during the backtest was 7.74%, suggesting that while there's some volatility, UBER often rebounds strongly after a significant drop.

Bullish Long-Term Outlook, But Short-Term Volatility Looms—What to Watch Now
Uber’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, with a $20B buyback and expanding platform partnerships. However, near-term volatility is likely as the market digests macroeconomic risks and sector rotation. The 52-week high of $97.71 remains a distant target, but a breakdown below $85.24 could trigger deeper corrections. Sector leader LYFT (-4.44%) underscores the fragility of investor sentiment. For now, focus on key levels: $85.24 (Bollinger support) and $90.96 (middle band). Options traders should monitor UBER20250815P82.5 and UBER20250815P83 for volatility-driven opportunities. Action: Watch for a $85.24 breakdown or a rebound above $90.96 to gauge the next move.