Uber Plunges 3.5% as Safety Concerns and Buyback Skepticism Collide—Is This the Bottom?

Summary
• Uber Technologies (UBER) slumps to $89.415, down 3.51% from its 52-week high of $97.715
• Intraday range spans $88.91 to $94.31, signaling volatile session
• $20 billion buyback program announced, yet shares underperform sector peers

Uber’s stock is in freefall, battered by a perfect storm of safety scandals, regulatory scrutiny, and investor skepticism over its capital allocation strategy. With the ride-hailing giant’s shares trading near session lows, the market is grappling with whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning sign. The day’s $3.45% drop has left UBER at 95% of its 52-week high, raising urgent questions about its ability to regain momentum.

Safety Scandals and Buyback Fatigue Weigh on Investor Sentiment
Uber’s sharp decline stems from a confluence of factors. The company’s $20 billion buyback program, intended to signal confidence, has been overshadowed by a spate of safety-related lawsuits and negative headlines. Recent reports of a Lyft driver kidnapping a teenage mother and her infant, coupled with Uber’s own history of sexual assault allegations, have eroded trust in the sector. Meanwhile, analysts question the sustainability of buybacks amid rising operational costs in autonomous vehicle development and regulatory hurdles. The market’s reaction reflects a loss of faith in management’s ability to balance shareholder returns with core business risks.

Rideshare Sector Reels as LYFT Leads the Plunge
The rideshare sector is in turmoil, with LYFT mirroring UBER’s decline. Lyft’s stock fell 4.33% intraday, underscoring sector-wide jitters. Both companies face mounting pressure from safety concerns and competition from Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions. While Uber’s buyback program aims to differentiate it, the broader sector’s struggles—exacerbated by regulatory scrutiny and operational costs—suggest a challenging near-term outlook. Investors are now scrutinizing whether these buybacks will offset long-term structural headwinds.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with UBER20250815C90 and UBER20250815C91
• 200-day MA: 77.26 (well above current price)
• 30-day MA: 91.70 (resistance ahead)
• RSI: 56.44 (neutral, no overbought/oversold signal)
• MACD: -0.24 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 94.84 (upper), 85.97 (lower)—price near lower band

Uber’s technicals suggest a bearish bias, with key support at $86.91 and resistance at $90.41. The 52-week low of $59.33 remains a distant floor, but near-term volatility is likely. Two options stand out for aggressive positioning:

• UBER20250815C90: Call option with 32.41% implied volatility, 57.79% leverage ratio, delta 0.477, theta -0.3249, gamma 0.0927. High liquidity (1.5M turnover) and moderate delta make this ideal for a short-term rebound trade. If Uber breaks above $90, this contract could capitalize on a bounce.
• UBER20250815C91: Call option with 31.87% IV, 80.69% leverage, delta 0.385, theta -0.2774, gamma 0.0904. Strong gamma and liquidity (750K turnover) position this for a mid-term play if the stock stabilizes. A 5% downside scenario (to $85) would yield a 56.94% loss, but a rebound to $91 could unlock 60.92% gains.

For a bearish bet, UBER20250815P84 (put option) offers 35.26% IV and 389.43% leverage, but its -0.101 delta suggests limited downside potential. Aggressive bulls should target UBER20250815C90 into a break above $90.50.

Backtest Uber Technologies Stock Performance
Uber (UBER) has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term performance following a -4% intraday plunge. The backtest data reveals favorable win rates and returns for 3, 10, and 30 days after such events, with the maximum return reaching 7.86% over 30 days. This indicates that while there may be some short-term volatility, Uber tends to recover and even exceed its previous levels in the aftermath of significant dips.

Urgent Action Required: Watch $86.91 Support and LYFT’s Lead
Uber’s near-term survival hinges on stabilizing its share price above $86.91, the 30-day support level. A breakdown could trigger a freefall toward the 200-day MA at $77.26. Meanwhile, the sector’s leader, LYFT (-4.33%), offers a barometer for broader sentiment. Investors should monitor UBER’s ability to defend its buyback-driven narrative and address safety concerns. For now, the path of least resistance is lower, but a rebound above $90.50 could reignite bullish momentum. Watch for a catalyst—positive earnings or a regulatory breakthrough—to reverse this bearish trend.