UAMY Soars 9.3% on Critical Minerals Momentum: Can Strategic Scarcity Fuel a New Bull Run?

Summary
• United States Antimony (UAMY) surges 9.3% to $7.64, hitting an intraday high of $7.99
• Turnover rate jumps to 9.06%, outpacing 52-week average
• Sector peers like Military Metals (MILI) and Perpetua (PPTA) gain traction on critical minerals demand
• UAMY’s 52-week high of $19.71 remains distant but strategic supply chain dynamics intensify. Today’s move reflects a confluence of drilling results, geopolitical tailwinds, and sector-wide optimism over antimony’s role in defense and energy tech.

Critical Minerals Momentum and Military Metals' Drilling Results Drive UAMY Surge
UAMY’s 9.3% rally stems from renewed focus on antimony’s strategic value, amplified by Military Metals’ 23.2-meter drill hole at Trojarová (4.9% Sb and 3.17 g/t Au) and U.S. policy shifts. The Trojarová results validate historical antimony-gold deposits, aligning with the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act and U.S. efforts to de-risk supply chains. Antimony’s use in semiconductors and defense systems, coupled with Chinese export restrictions, has pushed UAMY into the spotlight as a scarce, policy-backed producer. The stock’s breakout above $7.50 follows a 590% YTD surge, with options volatility spiking as investors bet on further gains.

Industrial Metals & Minerals Sector Mixed as FCX Slides, UAMY Soars
While UAMY surged, the broader Industrial Metals & Minerals sector showed divergence. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) fell 2.0% on copper supply concerns, contrasting UAMY’s momentum. This highlights antimony’s unique positioning: unlike base metals, antimony’s demand is driven by defense and advanced manufacturing, sectors insulated from cyclical downturns. UAMY’s 9.3% gain outperformed peers like MP Materials (MP) and Critical Metals (CRML), which traded flat, underscoring antimony’s strategic premium.

Options Play: UAMY20260116C7.5 and UAMY20260116C8 for High-Leverage Exposure
• RSI: 67.79 (overbought but supported by fundamentals)
• MACD: 0.24 (bullish crossover)
• 200-day MA: $4.91 (far below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $7.18 (upper), $4.22 (lower) – price near upper band suggests breakout
• 52-week high: $19.71 (key resistance ahead)
• Turnover rate: 9.06% (high liquidity)
• Short-term bullish trend confirmed by 30D MA ($5.73) and 100D MA ($6.91) crossing above 200D MA ($4.91)

Top Options:
1. UAMY20260116C7.5
• Code: UAMY20260116C7.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $7.50
• Expiry: 2026-01-16
• IV: 127.65% (high volatility)
• LVR: 9.73% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: 0.61 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.048 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.23 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 59,082 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($7.99): $0.49 per contract
• Rationale: High gamma and IV make this ideal for a short-term breakout play. If UAMY holds above $7.50, the option gains 50%+ on a 5% stock move.

2. UAMY20260116C8
• Code: UAMY20260116C8
• Type: Call
• Strike: $8.00
• Expiry: 2026-01-16
• IV: 134.31% (extreme volatility)
• LVR: 12.98% (aggressive leverage)
• Delta: 0.498 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.048 (rapid decay)
• Gamma: 0.23 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 64,202 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($7.99): $0.00 (strike not breached)
• Rationale: High leverage and IV make this a speculative bet. If UAMY breaks $8.00, the option could multiply in value, but it’s a high-risk, high-reward play.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider UAMY20260116C7.5 into a break above $7.99. For a more conservative approach, use UAMY20260116C6.5 (IV: 114.33%, LVR: 5.77%) as a hedge.

Backtest United States Antimony Stock Performance
The backtest of UAMY's performance after a 9% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 47.30%, the 10-Day win rate is 49.68%, and the 30-Day win rate is 54.64%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 27.18% over 30 days, suggesting that UAMY can deliver significant gains following the intraday surge.

UAMY’s Strategic Positioning and Options Volatility Signal Aggressive Bullish Setup
UAMY’s 9.3% surge reflects its role as a scarce antimony producer in a sector driven by geopolitical tailwinds and defense demand. The stock’s technicals—RSI overbought, MACD bullish, and Bollinger Bands near upper limit—suggest momentum is intact. However, the 52-week high of $19.71 remains a distant target, requiring sustained policy and drilling-driven optimism. Options volatility (IV >120%) indicates high conviction among traders, with UAMY20260116C7.5 and C8 offering leveraged exposure. Watch for a break above $7.99 to confirm the trend. Meanwhile, sector leader FCX (-1.99%) highlights base metals’ cyclical risks, reinforcing antimony’s unique positioning. Aggressive bulls may consider UAMY20260116C7.5 into a break above $7.99.