UAMY Plunges 24% Amid $25M Capital Raise and $245M DLA Contract: What's Next?

Summary
• United States Antimony (UAMY) slumps 24.18% to $13.245, erasing gains from a $25M equity offering and $245M DLA contract.
• CEO Gary Evans buys 100,000 shares, signaling confidence amid regulatory hurdles.
• Technicals show a short-term bullish trend, but intraday volatility surges to 210% implied volatility.
• The stock trades at a 39% discount to a $7.50 fair value estimate, per Simply Wall St.

United States Antimony’s stock is in freefall despite a $25M capital raise and a $245M U.S. government contract. The 24% drop has pushed the stock to a 52-week low of $13.185, raising questions about the sustainability of its recent rally. With regulatory delays and permitting risks looming, investors are weighing the impact of capital injections against operational bottlenecks.

Regulatory Uncertainty Overshadows Capital Raise and DLA Contract
The stock’s collapse stems from a mix of profit-taking and renewed skepticism about regulatory timelines. While the $25M equity offering and $245M DLA contract for antimony ingots signal strategic momentum, the market is pricing in delays at Alaska and Montana projects. The CEO’s share purchase and $40M–$50M FY2025 revenue guidance offer some optimism, but permitting risks remain unaddressed. Analysts note that the capital raise does not resolve bottlenecks, and the stock’s 39% discount to fair value suggests lingering doubts about execution.

Industrial Metals Sector Mixed as UAMY's Drop Outpaces Peers
The Industrial Metals & Alloys sector, led by Alcoa (AA), saw a minor 0.06% decline, contrasting with UAMY’s 24% plunge. While UAMY’s volatility reflects project-specific risks, broader sector trends remain stable. Alcoa’s resilience highlights the disparity between capital-intensive critical mineral plays and established industrial metals producers. UAMY’s sharp drop underscores its exposure to regulatory and permitting delays, which are less material for diversified peers.

Options Playbook: Leveraged Bets on UAMY’s Volatility
• 200-day average: $3.31 (far below current price)
• RSI: 94.63 (overbought)
• MACD: 2.44 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $13.25, far below upper band of $15.28

UAMY’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound is possible, but the 24% intraday drop has created a volatile setup. Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA at $3.31 and the 52-week low of $13.185. The stock’s 210% implied volatility and 8.35% leverage ratio on the UAMY20251031P13 put contract make it a high-risk/high-reward play. Aggressive bulls may consider UAMY20251031C13 for a bounce above $13, while bears eye UAMY20251031P13 for a breakdown.

Top Option 1: UAMY20251031P13 (Put)
• Code: UAMY20251031P13
• Strike: $13
• Expiration: 2025-10-31
• IV: 224.44% (extreme volatility)
• Leverage: 5.85%
• Delta: -0.376 (moderate bearish bias)
• Theta: -0.055 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.058 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: $5,382

This put contract offers outsized leverage (5.85%) and high gamma (0.058), making it ideal for a sharp decline. A 5% drop to $12.55 would yield a 130% payoff (max(0, $13 - $12.55) = $0.45).

Top Option 2: UAMY20251031C13 (Call)
• Code: UAMY20251031C13
• Strike: $13
• Expiration: 2025-10-31
• IV: 189.23% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 5.65%
• Delta: 0.615 (moderate bullish bias)
• Theta: -0.076 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.069 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: $1,189,735

This call contract balances leverage (5.65%) and liquidity (high turnover). A 5% rebound to $13.86 would generate a 55.93% payoff (max(0, $13.86 - $13) = $0.86).

Trading Hook: If $13.185 breaks, UAMY20251031P13 offers short-side potential. Aggressive bulls may consider UAMY20251031C13 into a bounce above $13.50.

Backtest United States Antimony Stock Performance
I attempted to generate the event-date list automatically, but the calculation service returned an internal error (“ ：code_result ”). This usually happens when the dataset I supplied doesn’t include the exact Open/Low prices needed to identify a –24 % intraday drop.To move forward, we have two practical options:1. Retry with a pure OHLC dataset • I’ll pull a raw daily price file that explicitly contains Open, High, Low, Close values, then rerun the event-detection step. • This should let the system detect every day where (Low − Open) / Open ≤ –0.24 between 2022-01-01 and today.2. Proceed with a manual date list (if you already know the plunge dates) • You can provide the dates, or even a shorter period to speed things up. • I’ll plug them directly into the event backtest engine.Please let me know which approach you prefer (or if you have the event dates handy).

UAMY at Crossroads: Regulatory Clarity or Collapse?
UAMY’s 24% plunge reflects a market grappling with regulatory uncertainty and operational bottlenecks. While the $25M capital raise and $245M DLA contract provide strategic tailwinds, permitting delays at Alaska and Montana projects remain a critical risk. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $3.31 and the CEO’s 100,000-share purchase as confidence signals. The sector leader, Alcoa (AA), is down 0.06%, underscoring UAMY’s unique volatility. Watch for $13.185 breakdown or regulatory updates—either could trigger a sharp reversal.