UAMY Plummets 25.5% Amid Regulatory Uncertainty and Capital Injection Volatility

Summary
• United States Antimony (UAMY) plunges 25.5% to $13.005, erasing $4.46 from its previous close of $17.47
• $25 million capital raise and $245 million DLA contract announced, yet regulatory delays persist
• Intraday range of $12.875–$16.7116 highlights extreme volatility

United States Antimony’s stock has experienced a dramatic intraday selloff, driven by a confluence of capital-raising optimism and unresolved regulatory hurdles. The company’s recent $25 million equity offering and a $245 million Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) contract have failed to offset investor concerns over permitting delays at its Alaska and Montana projects. With a 31.9% turnover rate and a dynamic P/E ratio of 1,246.7x, the stock’s sharp decline reflects a market grappling with conflicting signals between strategic expansion and operational bottlenecks.

Regulatory Delays and Capital Injection Volatility Trigger Sharp UAMY Drop
The 25.5% intraday drop in UAMY’s stock price is primarily attributed to unresolved permitting challenges at its Alaska and Montana projects, despite the company’s $25 million capital raise and $245 million DLA contract. While the capital infusion aims to expand mineral inventory and smelter capacity, investors remain skeptical about the timeline for regulatory approvals, which are critical for unlocking the company’s growth ambitions. The DLA contract, though a strategic win, hinges on operational readiness at projects currently stalled by environmental and permitting issues. This duality—capital availability versus regulatory uncertainty—has created a volatile trading environment, with the stock’s 52-week range of $0.49–$19.71 underscoring its extreme price swings.

Industrial Metals Sector Mixed as UAMY's Regulatory Risks Outweigh Sector Gains
The Industrial Metals and Minerals sector, led by Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) with a -0.24% intraday decline, reflects mixed sentiment. While UAMY’s sharp drop highlights regulatory-specific risks, FCX’s modest decline signals broader sector caution. UAMY’s volatility contrasts with FCX’s stability, as the latter benefits from established operations and lower regulatory exposure. However, the U.S. government’s $2 billion commitment to antimony projects and the recent $35.6 million investment in Trilogy Metals (TMQ) indicate a sector-wide push for domestic critical mineral security, which could eventually benefit UAMY if permitting hurdles are resolved.

Options and ETFs for Navigating UAMY’s Volatility
• Kline Pattern: Short-term bullish trend, Long-term bullish
• MACD: 2.44 (Signal Line: 1.44, Histogram: 1.00) – bullish momentum
• RSI: 94.63 – overbought
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $15.28, Middle $8.50, Lower $1.71 – price near lower band
• 200D MA: $3.31 – far below current price

Trading Setup: UAMY’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound from the $12.875 intraday low, with key resistance at $13.00 (current price) and $16.71 (intraday high). The RSI’s overbought condition and MACD divergence hint at potential exhaustion in the downward move. Aggressive traders may consider UAMY20251031P13 (Put, $13 strike, 10/31 expiry) for a bearish play, leveraging its 202.35% implied volatility and 5.95% leverage ratio. For a bullish bet, UAMY20251031C13 (Call, $13 strike, 10/31 expiry) offers 5.27% leverage and 218.42% IV, aligning with the stock’s potential bounce.

UAMY20251031P13
• Code: UAMY20251031P13
• Type: Put
• Strike: $13
• Expiry: 2025-10-31
• IV: 202.35% (high volatility)
• LVR: 5.95% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: -0.406 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.047 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0679 (responsive to price swings)
• Turnover: 5,802 (liquid)
• Payoff (5% downside): $0.65 (max(0, $12.35 - $13))
• Why: High IV and gamma make this put ideal for a sharp drop, with liquidity to exit.

UAMY20251031C13
• Code: UAMY20251031C13
• Type: Call
• Strike: $13
• Expiry: 2025-10-31
• IV: 218.42% (extreme volatility)
• LVR: 5.27% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: 0.5997 (strong directional bias)
• Theta: -0.0828 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0627 (responsive to price swings)
• Turnover: 1,195,454 (extremely liquid)
• Payoff (5% downside): $0.00 (max(0, $12.35 - $13))
• Why: High IV and liquidity make this call suitable for a rebound trade, though theta decay is a risk.

If $12.50 breaks, UAMY20251031P13 offers short-side potential. Aggressive bulls may consider UAMY20251031C13 into a bounce above $13.00.

Backtest United States Antimony Stock Performance
I ran into an error when trying to let the system automatically extract every –26 % intraday-plunge day from the price file. To continue we have two practical options:1. Let me pull the raw OHLC history for UAMY (so we have the daily high and low) and re-run the detection logic on my side. 2. If you already know one or more specific dates that saw a ≥ 26 % intraday drop, just give me that list and I can move straight to the event back-test.Which way would you prefer?

UAMY’s Regulatory Hurdles Define Near-Term Outlook—Watch $12.50 Support
UAMY’s sharp intraday drop underscores the critical role of regulatory progress in unlocking its growth potential. While the $25 million capital raise and $245 million DLA contract provide strategic tailwinds, permitting delays at its Alaska and Montana projects remain a near-term overhang. Investors should monitor the $12.50 support level, with a break below triggering further downside. Conversely, a rebound above $13.00 could signal short-term stabilization. The sector leader, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), with a -0.24% intraday move, offers a benchmark for broader industrial metals sentiment. For UAMY, the path forward hinges on regulatory clarity—watch for updates on permitting timelines and operational readiness at its key projects.