Twist Bioscience Plummets 10%: Earnings Shock or Market Overreaction?

Summary
• Twist Bioscience (TWST) slumps 10.15% to $26.87, its lowest since November 2023
• Q4 revenue hits $99M, exceeding estimates, but EPS of -$0.45 misses forecasts
• Intraday range of $23.3–$27.0 highlights volatile reaction to earnings
• Sector peers like Illumina (ILMN) rally 0.74%, contrasting TWST’s selloff

Twist Bioscience’s stock imploded on Thursday after the biotech firm reported a wider-than-expected Q4 loss despite beating revenue estimates. The $99M top-line result marked a 17% YoY increase, yet investors fixated on the -$0.45 EPS shortfall. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $23.3, the selloff raises questions about whether the market is overcorrecting or pricing in structural risks.

Earnings Disappointment Overshadows Revenue Growth
Twist Bioscience’s Q4 results revealed a $27.1M net loss, a $6.6M improvement from the prior year but still a red flag for investors. While revenue growth accelerated to $99M (17% YoY), the EPS miss of -$0.03 and rising SG&A expenses ($63.8M vs. $53.1M) signaled unresolved cost pressures. CEO Emily Leproust’s optimism about 2026 EBITDA breakeven failed to offset concerns about recurring losses. The stock’s 10% drop reflects a shift in sentiment from revenue optimism to margin skepticism, exacerbated by a 51.3% gross margin improvement being insufficient to offset operational costs.

Bearish Setup: Options and ETFs for a Volatile Biotech Play
• 200-day MA: $34.63 (well above current price)
• RSI: 34.87 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -0.28 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $26.87, below the 28.62 lower band

Twist Bioscience’s technicals confirm a short-term bearish bias, with the stock trading near its 52-week low and key support levels at $23.3 (intraday low) and $26.32 (open). The 34.87 RSI suggests overselling, but without a clear reversal signal, the path of least resistance remains downward. For options traders, the TWST20251121P27.5 put option stands out: it has a 84.31% implied volatility ratio, 9.33% price gain, and a delta of -0.538, offering leverage on a potential breakdown below $27.5. The TWST20251219P27.5 (81.32% IV, 22.22% gain) provides a longer-term hedge. Both contracts benefit from high gamma (0.118–0.063) and theta (-0.0005 to -0.0168), amplifying sensitivity to price swings. A 5% downside scenario (to $25.52) would yield a 90.18% return on the TWST20251219P25 put, though its 159.29% IV suggests overpricing. Aggressive short-sellers may target the $23.3 level, but institutional ownership (118.75%) and a 4.94 P/S ratio hint at potential mean reversion.

Backtest Twist Bioscience Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-backtest report summarizing Twist Bioscience (TWST.O) performance following –10 %-or-worse intraday plunges since 1 Jan 2022.Key take-aways (30-day post-event horizon):• 32 qualifying plunge days identified. • Near-term bounce: median +1.8 % by day 5, win-rate ~50 %. • Gains peak ~+2.8 % around day 9, then fade; by day 20 the median event cohort shows –2.8 % vs +0.7 % for the benchmark, with no statistically significant edge at any horizon. • Performance turns negative after the second week; only 28 % of events remain positive by day 21. • Implication: buying immediately after ≥-10 % flash drops has not offered a persistent edge in TWST over 2022-present; short-term mean-reversion exists but fades quickly.Feel free to explore the chart and tables in the module above for deeper insight, or let me know if you’d like to test alternative holding windows, add stop-loss/take-profit rules, or examine other plunge thresholds.

Twist Bioscience at a Crossroads: Hold or Halt?
Twist Bioscience’s 10% selloff underscores the market’s skepticism about its path to profitability, despite 2026 revenue guidance of $425–435M. The stock’s technical breakdown and bearish options activity suggest further downside risks, particularly if the 52-week low of $23.3 is tested. However, the company’s 13%–15.5% revenue growth forecast and 52%+ gross margin target for 2026 could attract contrarians. Investors should monitor the $27.5 psychological level and the sector leader Illumina (ILMN, +0.74%) for broader biotech sentiment. For now, the TWST20251121P27.5 put offers a high-leverage play on a potential breakdown, but caution is warranted given the stock’s -24.07 P/E and 4.6% turnover rate. Watch for a reversal above $27.5 or a 200-day MA crossover to signal a shift in momentum.