Twist Bioscience: Navigating Near-Term Volatility While Building a High-Growth Long-Term Healthcare Play

Twist Bioscience (NASDAQ: TWST) has long been a poster child for the promise and perils of biotech innovation. While its DNA synthesis platform has driven double-digit revenue growth, the company's reliance on a narrow base of next-generation sequencing (NGS) customers and persistent unprofitability have left investors wary. However, the impending launch of MRD Express-a rapid cancer monitoring solution-could mark a pivotal inflection point. By diversifying revenue streams, improving margins, and reducing exposure to volatile NGS demand, MRD Express has the potential to redefine Twist's valuation trajectory and position it as a compelling long-term healthcare play.

Strategic Value of MRD Express: De-Risking Revenue Concentration

Twist's current business model is heavily skewed toward NGS customers, a segment prone to pricing pressures and customer concentration risks. According to a report by Seeking Alpha, management has acknowledged that growth in MRD-related revenue could contribute 1–2 percentage points to overall growth in fiscal 2026, with a more significant ramp expected in late 2026 and beyond. This is no small feat: MRD Express leverages Twist's proprietary DNA synthesis technology to deliver customized minimal residual disease (MRD) panels in under 12 hours, a dramatic improvement over traditional methods that often take weeks.

The product's strategic value lies in its ability to tap into the $10 billion MRD diagnostics market, which is expanding rapidly due to the rise of precision oncology and the need for real-time cancer monitoring. By addressing this high-growth niche, Twist can reduce its dependence on a handful of large NGS clients, mitigating the risk of revenue volatility. As stated in a July 2025 press release, the company's automated workflow and scalable infrastructure enable it to maintain affordability while delivering high-quality gene fragments-a competitive edge that could accelerate adoption.

Financial Projections: A Path to Profitability by 2028

Twist's 2028 profitability forecast hinges on two pillars: revenue diversification and margin expansion. The company projects $575.2 million in revenue by 2028, representing a 16.7% annual growth rate from its current $397.6 million revenue base. While this target is ambitious, MRD Express is positioned to play a critical role. Analysts note that the product's high-margin potential-stemming from its proprietary technology and streamlined delivery model-could drive gross margin improvements, a key lever for profitability.

However, challenges remain. Twist's operating margins remain negative, and its reliance on a few large NGS customers persists. The company's 2028 earnings are projected to rise from -$85.2 million today to $92.4 million, but this assumes successful market adoption of MRD Express and continued innovation in AI-driven drug discovery. Analysts at SimplyWall St. argue that the product's success could unlock a fair value range of $35.47 to $50 per share, representing a 47% upside from current levels.

Long-Term Implications: A High-Growth Healthcare Play

The broader healthcare landscape is shifting toward personalized medicine and AI-driven diagnostics, areas where Twist has already established a foothold. MRD Express aligns with this trend by enabling faster, more accurate cancer monitoring-a critical need in an era where early detection and treatment adjustments are paramount. As one analyst noted, the product's 12-hour turnaround time could disrupt traditional diagnostic workflows and attract partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and academic institutions.

Yet, the road to profitability is not without hurdles. Twist must navigate regulatory approvals, secure reimbursement models for MRD testing, and demonstrate clinical utility to stakeholders. Additionally, the company's current valuation reflects skepticism about its ability to sustain growth and achieve profitability. However, the launch of MRD Express-combined with its existing strengths in DNA synthesis and AI-driven automation-creates a compelling narrative for long-term investors.

Conclusion: Balancing Near-Term Risks with Long-Term Rewards

Twist Bioscience's journey is a classic case of navigating near-term volatility while building a high-growth foundation. The MRD Express launch represents a strategic masterstroke: it diversifies revenue, improves margins, and positions the company at the forefront of precision oncology. While the path to 2028 profitability remains uncertain, the product's potential to redefine Twist's valuation and investment appeal is undeniable. For investors with a long-term horizon, the key question is not whether Twist can succeed, but whether the market is underestimating the transformative power of its innovations.