Twilio Stock Jumps 7.24% In Two Days As Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

Twilio (TWLO) shares rose 3.63% to close at $131 on July 18, 2025, marking the second consecutive daily gain for a cumulative 7.24% advance. This rebound from July’s $113.16 low warrants a multi-framework technical assessment of potential price trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals significant bullish signals. A bullish engulfing pattern formed on July 15th when a large green candle ($118.47–$128.10) completely overshadowed the prior session’s decline, foreshadowing the current recovery. The consecutive white candles with higher closes over the last two sessions confirm buyer dominance. Key resistance resides near the $133–$135 zone, corresponding to June highs, while the $122–$126 area now serves as validated support, having contained multiple pullbacks in early July.
Moving Average Theory
A bullish alignment emerges across timeframes. The 50-day MA ($117) recently crossed above the 100-day MA ($110), while both remain above the ascending 200-day MA ($101). The current price trades 12% above the 50-day MA, signaling strong short-term momentum. However, the widening gap between price and the 50-day MA suggests potential near-term consolidation. The sustained trading above all three moving averages confirms the primary uptrend remains intact.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a strengthening bullish bias, with the histogram in positive territory and accelerating since July 11th. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator’s %K (89) and %D (85) have re-entered overbought territory after a brief mid-July dip, reflecting resurgent momentum. While neither indicator shows bearish divergence currently, the elevated KDJ levels warn of potential near-term exhaustion. This alignment suggests upside continuation is probable but may face resistance near historical swing highs.
Bollinger Bands
Price currently hugs the upper band (20-day, 2σ at $132) amid expanding bandwidth – a volatility expansion signal often preceding directional moves. This positioning implies near-term overbought conditions relative to the 20-day baseline ($124). The July rally occurred after prices bounced decisively from the mid-Bollinger level ($122), validating it as dynamic support. Continued upper-band proximity suggests bullish momentum, though a reversion toward the midline would signal consolidation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends confirm bullish conviction. The July 15th breakout surged on 5.99 million shares – 150% above the 30-day average – establishing institutional participation. Subsequent advances occurred on above-average volume, including the July 18th gain supported by 3.35 million shares. This demonstrates consistent accumulation during upside moves, though declining volume on future gains would undermine sustainability. No negative divergence currently exists between volume and price action.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 72 resides near overbought territory. Historically, Twilio has sustained RSI readings above 70 during strong impulse moves (notably February’s rally). While not an immediate reversal signal, this indicates reduced risk-reward near current levels. Traders should monitor for bearish divergence, particularly if prices make new highs without corresponding RSI confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the corrective decline from February’s $147.43 high to April’s $81.56 low reveals key thresholds. The recent rebound has surpassed the 61.8% retracement ($122.30), turning it into support. Current price action challenges the critical 78.6% retracement at $133.30, aligning with June’s double-top resistance. A decisive close above $133.30 would open a path to test February highs, while failure here could retrace toward the 50% level ($114.50).
Concluding Synthesis
Confluence exists at the $122–$126 support zone, where the 61.8% Fibonacci, 50-day MA, Bollinger midline, and prior price consolidation converge. The July recovery exhibits technically healthy characteristics: MACD confirmation, volume-supported advances, and moving average alignment. However, overbought RSI and Bollinger proximity, coupled with stiff resistance at $133–$135, indicate potential near-term consolidation. Upside continuation would likely require a volume-backed breach of the 78.6% Fib level, while failure to hold $122 risks testing the 100-day MA near $110. The preponderance of momentum and trend indicators currently favors a cautiously bullish bias.