TVRD Plummets 85%: A Biotech Meltdown Unfolds as Trial Disappointment Ignites Chaos

Summary
• Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) crashes 85% to $6.26, erasing 85% of its value in a single session.
• Phase 2 trial of TTI-101 in IPF fails to meet goals, with high discontinuation rates and no efficacy signal.
• CEO admits 'limited data set' and 'unexpected placebo performance' cloud conclusions.

Today’s collapse of Tvardi Therapeutics marks one of the most dramatic intraday declines in biotech history. The stock, which opened at $6.17 and briefly hit $6.50, has now fallen to $5.65—a 52-week low—amid a catastrophic response to its Phase 2 trial failure. With $41 million in cash and a 2026 cash runway, the company’s survival hinges on its next-generation STAT3 inhibitor, TTI-109, now under scrutiny.

TTI-101’s IPF Trial Collapse Sparks Investor Panic
Tvardi’s stock imploded after revealing that its Phase 2 REVERT trial of TTI-101 in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) failed to meet its primary endpoints. The trial reported no statistically significant improvement in forced vital capacity (FVC) compared to placebo, with treatment arms showing higher discontinuation rates (56.7% for 400mg, 62.1% for 800mg) driven by gastrointestinal adverse events. The placebo group’s FVC decline was unexpectedly lower than historical controls, further muddying the data. CEO Imran Alibhai acknowledged the ‘limited data set’ and ‘high variability’ as barriers to definitive conclusions, but the market interpreted this as a death knell for TTI-101’s IPF prospects.

Technical Deterioration and Cash Flow Constraints: A Bearish Playbook
• MACD: 2.58 (Signal Line: 2.48, Histogram: 0.11) – Weak bullish momentum fading.
• RSI: 65.8 – Neutral territory, but oversold conditions near $5.65.
• Bollinger Bands: Price at Lower Band ($33.64) – Suggesting extreme volatility.
• K-line Pattern: Short-term bullish trend – Contradicts intraday carnage.

TVRD’s technicals paint a fractured picture. While the RSI suggests neutrality, the stock’s collapse to its 52-week low ($5.65) and 37.4% turnover rate indicate a liquidity crisis. The Bollinger Bands’ lower boundary is now a critical support level; a break below $5.65 could trigger a freefall. With no options chain available, traders must rely on cash flow metrics: Tvardi’s $41 million in cash may delay insolvency but won’t halt near-term volatility. Aggressive short-sellers should target $5.65 as a breakdown level, while longs must wait for a post-earnings rebound or TTI-109 data in H1 2026.

Backtest Tvardi Therapeutics Stock Performance
Here is the completed back-test of the “RSI Oversold – 1-Day Hold” strategy on NVDA (2022-01-01 → 2025-10-13). I used the standard 14-period RSI with an oversold threshold of 30, opened positions on the first close < 30, and force-closed them after exactly one trading day via the “max holding days = 1” risk-control rule. (The user supplied no additional stop-loss / take-profit constraints, so none were applied.)Key performance insight • Total return ≈ 30 %, annualised ≈ 8 %. • Maximum drawdown ≈ 13 %. • Average trade return ≈ 0.9 %; win rate modest, but gains outweigh losses.You can inspect the full interactive report (equity curve, trade list, distribution, etc.) in the module below.Feel free to explore the interactive chart, trade table, and other statistics within the module. Let me know if you’d like to adjust parameters (e.g., RSI period, threshold, holding duration, or add stop-loss / take-profit) or test a different symbol.

TVRD’s Freefall: A Race Against Time for Survival
Tvardi’s 85% collapse underscores the fragility of biotech pipelines. With TTI-101’s IPF prospects in ruins and TTI-109’s healthy volunteer data still months away, the stock’s near-term outlook is dire. Investors must watch the $5.65 support level and the October 13 conference call for clarity on next steps. Meanwhile, sector leader Amgen (AMGN) rose 0.9% today, highlighting the sector’s divergence. For TVRD, the path forward hinges on TTI-109’s tolerability and the CEO’s ability to secure capital—act now to short $5.65 or buy puts for a H1 2026 rebound.