Tutorial/USDC Market Overview

Summary
• Price action showed mixed momentum with a 0.01855 intraday high and a 0.01782 low.
• Volume spiked at key turning points, but turnover failed to confirm bullish follow-through.
• RSI briefly entered overbought territory but failed to sustain above 70.

TUTUSDC opened at 0.0179 on 2025-11-05 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.01855 before closing at 0.01791 on 2025-11-06 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 9,248,448.0 with turnover of approximately $168,640. The 15-minute chart showed a volatile session with sharp reversals, particularly after 23:00 ET when the price pushed above 0.0184.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a series of bullish and bearish engulfing patterns, particularly around the 17:45–18:00 ET and 20:15–20:30 ET timeframes, suggesting shifting control between bulls and bears. A bearish harami pattern appeared around 23:45 ET, hinting at a potential near-term pullback. A key support level held at 0.01800–0.01810, while resistance stalled at 0.0184–0.01855.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into bullish territory near 0.01815–0.01825, but the 50SMA flattened out by the end of the session, indicating weakening momentum. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) remained in a tighter convergence around 0.0180–0.0181, reflecting low volatility and stable positioning.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a mixed signal—initially bullish with a positive divergence at 0.0182, but the histogram flattened and even turned bearish by 00:45 ET. RSI hit overbought levels above 70 briefly during the late evening hours but failed to maintain, ending the session near 60. This suggested exhaustion in the rally but not a clear reversal signal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during key price swings, particularly between 20:15 ET and 00:00 ET, with prices frequently touching or breaching the upper band. By morning, the bands began to contract, hinting at a potential consolidation phase ahead. Price closed near the upper band, indicating a possible exhaustion of bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during critical turning points—most notably at 20:15 ET (0.01842 close) and 23:30 ET (0.01844 close)—but failed to confirm further upside with sustained buying pressure. Turnover increased during the 20:15–00:00 ET session, though the price failed to close above key resistance levels. This divergence may signal weakening conviction in the bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retrace of the 0.01782–0.01855 swing held near 0.01819–0.01821, acting as a short-term pivot zone. Daily Fibonacci levels showed the 38.2% retrace at 0.01804, which coincided with the 50SMA, suggesting a key support cluster for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of RSI overbought events (RSI > 70) over a 3.5-year period revealed limited predictive value for TUTUSDC. Despite 63 instances of overbought conditions, the median return over 30 trading days was negative (–0.39%), and short-term returns were also weak. Statistical tests showed no significant alpha relative to a USDC benchmark, suggesting that RSI overbought levels may not be a reliable trigger for timing trades in a stable, USD-pegged asset like Tutorial/USDC.

Forward-looking, the market appears poised to test support at 0.0180–0.0181 in the coming 24 hours. A break below could trigger a pullback toward 0.0178–0.0179, while a retest of 0.0184–0.0185 would require sustained volume and bullish confirmation to avoid a consolidation phase. Traders should remain cautious of false breakouts and monitor the 50SMA for directional guidance.