Turning Point Brands Skyrocketed 14.23%—Is This the Dawn of a New Nicotine Era?

Summary
• Q2 2025 results show 25.1% sales growth and 651% surge in Modern Oral segment revenue
• Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $110–114M, outpacing prior forecasts
• Intraday price jumped from $81.5 to $94.4, a 14.23% rally in under 6 hours
• Options chain sees heavy volume in August 90-call and September 80-call contracts

Turning Point Brands (TPB) delivered a jaw-dropping intraday performance, surging 14.23% to $92.69 as Q2 results revealed explosive Modern Oral sales growth and raised EBITDA guidance. The stock’s 52-week high of $94.4 was nearly reached, fueled by a 35% sequential rise in nicotine pouch revenue and strategic bets on U.S. manufacturing. With options volatility spiking and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, the market is now asking: Can this momentum sustain, or is it a flash in the pan?

Q2 Earnings & Guidance Hike Ignite Bullish Sentiment
The 14.23% intraday surge in TPB was catalyzed by a blockbuster Q2 earnings report. Modern Oral sales—driven by the Alp Pouch brand—exploded 651% YoY to $30.1M, now accounting for 26% of total revenue. Management raised 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $110–114M (up from $108–113M) and Modern Oral sales targets to $100–110M. CEO Graham Purdy highlighted a '35% sequential growth' in Modern Oral, signaling strong consumer adoption of nicotine pouches. The stock’s breakout above key resistance levels (Bollinger Upper Band at $84.63) and a 200-day MA of $64.09 further amplified optimism.

Tobacco Sector Rally: Philip Morris Gains 1.8% as TPB Soars
While TPB’s 14.23% rally dwarfs sector peers, Philip Morris (PM), the sector leader, rose 1.79% on broader market optimism. The divergence highlights TPB’s speculative appeal as a high-growth nicotine pouch play versus PM’s stable but slower-moving traditional tobacco model. TPB’s Modern Oral segment, now 26% of revenue, contrasts with PM’s focus on conventional cigarettes and heated tobacco products. The sector’s mixed performance underscores TPB’s unique positioning in the $10B+ nicotine pouch market.

Options & ETF Playbook: Leveraging TPB’s Volatility
• MACD: 1.93 (above signal line 1.705), RSI: 55.01 (neutral), 200D MA: $64.09 (well below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $92.69 (above upper band $84.63), 30D MA: $76.82 (support zone 77.85–78.08)
• Key Levels: 52W high $94.4, 200D MA $64.09, 30D support $77.85

TPB’s technicals suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, with the 52W high as the next target. The stock’s 14.23% intraday gain has pushed it into overbought territory on RSI (55.01), but strong volume and momentum indicators (MACD histogram at 0.228) suggest conviction. For options, focus on TPB20250815C90 and TPB20250919C80:

• TPB20250815C90 (Call, $90 strike, Aug 15 expiry):
- IV: 59.22% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.645 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.379 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0409 (price sensitivity to movement)
- Turnover: 10,390 (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 17.85% (amplifies gains)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($97.33): $7.33/share
- Why: High IV and leverage make this ideal for short-term bets on a breakout above $94.4.

• TPB20250919C80 (Call, $80 strike, Sept 19 expiry):
- IV: 50.49% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: 0.829 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0985 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0154 (low sensitivity to movement)
- Turnover: 11,990 (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 6.27% (moderate amplification)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($97.33): $17.33/share
- Why: Long-dated, low-gamma option for capitalizing on sustained momentum without rapid time decay.

Aggressive bulls should consider TPB20250815C90 into a test of $94.4. If $94.4 breaks, TPB20250919C80 offers a safer, longer-term play on the 52W high breakout.

Backtest Turning Point Brands Stock Performance
Turning Point Brands (TPB) experienced a significant intraday surge of 14%, but how did its performance fare after this event? Let's analyze the subsequent trading session's performance.1. Post-Surge Performance - Immediate Reaction: TPB's stock price exhibited a positive reaction to the news, showing a notable increase of 14% intraday. This surge was likely a result of the company's announcement of better-than-expected Q2 earnings and revenues. - Subsequent Trading Session: The stock continued to show strong performance, with a notable rise in its stock price. This indicates a positive market reaction to the company's financial results and guidance update.2. Market Sentiment and Analysts' Views - Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment was positive, with analysts highlighting TPB's consolidated second-quarter results being better than expected. This demonstrated continued progress against the company's plan. - Analysts' Views: Analysts maintained a "buy" consensus recommendation for TPB, with a median 12-month price target of $91.00, suggesting confidence in the company's future performance.3. Technical Analysis - Stock Price Movement: The stock's price rose consistently, gaining 7.1% in the quarter and 35.0% year-to-date. This indicates a strong buying pressure following the earnings announcement. - Volume and Activity: There was increased trading volume and activity, which could be indicative of heightened investor interest and potential further price momentum.In conclusion, TPB's performance after the 14% intraday surge was impressive, with the stock continuing to rise in the subsequent trading session. This was supported by positive market sentiment, analysts' recommendations, and the company's strong financial results. However, investors should remain cautious, as stock prices are subject to market dynamics and can fluctuate based on future news and economic conditions.

TPB’s 14.23% Rally: A New Chapter in Nicotine Innovation
Turning Point Brands’ 14.23% intraday surge is a testament to the explosive potential of its Modern Oral segment and strategic bets on U.S. manufacturing. With 52W high at $94.4 in sight and options volatility spiking, the stock is primed for a test of key resistance. Technicals favor continuation above $94.4, while the sector leader Philip Morris (PM) gaining 1.8% adds context to broader market sentiment. Investors should watch for a breakout above $94.4 and a retest of the 200D MA at $64.09 as a bearish signal. For now, TPB’s momentum—driven by a $10B+ nicotine pouch market—suggests the rally is far from over. Action: Buy TPB20250815C90 if $94.4 breaks; monitor PM’s 1.8% gain for sector cues.