Turkey-Syria Gas Link: A Geopolitical Gamble With Energy Rewards?

Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has announced a landmark development in regional energy cooperation: a natural gas interconnection between Turkey and Syria will be operational within weeks. This project, aimed at supplying Turkish gas to Syrian power plants, marks a critical step toward stabilizing Syria’s crippled energy sector while positioning Turkey as a pivotal energy transit hub. But beneath the surface lies a complex web of geopolitical risks, economic dependencies, and uncertain outcomes.

The Immediate Opportunity

Syria’s energy infrastructure has been devastated by over a decade of war, leaving power generation at just 30% of pre-2011 capacity. Daily electricity supply averages a meager two to three hours in most regions. The gas interconnection promises to alleviate this crisis by connecting Syrian power plants to Turkey’s more robust supply network. For Turkey, the project reinforces its ambitions to become a regional energy trade hub, leveraging its geographic position between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

Data shows Syria’s capacity plummeted from 12,000 MW in 2010 to under 3,600 MW by 2024, underscoring the urgency of the gas link.

Stakeholders and Strategic Interests

• Turkey: State-owned companies like BOTAŞ and TPAO will lead implementation. The project aligns with Ankara’s goal to reduce reliance on Russian gas (which accounted for 44% of Turkish imports in 2023) and diversify energy sources.
• Syria: The Assad regime’s survival hinges on stabilizing basic services, including energy. The gas link could be a lifeline, though its long-term viability depends on broader political stability.
• Regional Powers:
• Qatar: Despite prior interest in a larger Qatar-Turkey-Syria pipeline, Doha has dismissed the project as “speculation,” prioritizing LNG over risky cross-border infrastructure.
• U.S. and EU: Sanctions on Syria (e.g., the Caesar Act) and U.S. support for Kurdish control over Syria’s oil-rich northeast complicate the project’s expansion. The EU, meanwhile, faces a dilemma: the gas link could reduce reliance on Chinese-sourced LNG but conflicts with climate goals.
• Israel: Opposes a stronger Syria, fearing it could destabilize regional balances. Frequent airstrikes on Syrian infrastructure underscore Tel Aviv’s reluctance to see Damascus regain influence.

Risks and Uncertainties

1. Geopolitical Volatility: Syria’s territorial disputes, particularly with Kurdish factions, and ongoing Israeli airstrikes pose physical risks to infrastructure.
2. Sanctions and Diplomacy: U.S. sanctions on Syria’s energy sector remain in place until 2029, limiting foreign investment. A six-month EU sanctions waiver (June 2025) for humanitarian purposes is temporary.
3. Economic Feasibility: Qatar’s withdrawal highlights skepticism about pipeline projects in unstable regions. Analysts question whether the Turkey-Syria link can scale beyond a bilateral effort to attract broader regional investment.

Turkey’s Russian gas imports fell from 48% in 2020 to 39% in 2024 as it diversified LNG sources. The gas link could accelerate this shift, but risks depend on Syria’s stability.

Investment Considerations

• Short-Term Gains: The gas interconnection may boost shares of Turkish energy firms like TPAO and BOTAŞ, which could benefit from infrastructure contracts and regional influence.
• Long-Term Risks: Investors must weigh Syria’s reconstruction costs ($40 billion pre-war infrastructure needs) against political fragmentation and sanctions. Projects tied to Kurdish-controlled regions face U.S. sanctions risks.
• Alternative Routes: LNG via Turkey’s planned Canal Istanbul offers a flexible alternative to fixed pipelines, appealing to investors wary of geopolitical entanglements.

Conclusion

The Turkey-Syria gas interconnection is a bold move with immediate humanitarian and geopolitical benefits. For Turkey, it strengthens energy security and regional clout; for Syria, it offers a lifeline to restore basic services. However, the project’s long-term success hinges on factors far beyond gas flows: Syria’s political stability, U.S.-Russia-EU diplomatic dynamics, and the allure of LNG over fixed infrastructure.

While the pipeline’s imminent operationalization is a victory, investors should proceed with caution. Turkey’s energy sector may see near-term gains, but the broader vision of a regional gas hub depends on navigating a minefield of sanctions, rivalries, and reconstruction costs. For now, the gas link is a small step—but whether it becomes a leap toward energy security or a geopolitical quagmire remains uncertain.

Syria’s 2025 demand is projected at 8,000 MW, nearly double its current capacity. The gas link addresses only a fraction of this gap, highlighting the scale of challenges ahead.