Turbo/USDC Market Overview for October 3, 2025

• TURBOUSDC opened at $0.003746 and traded to a high of $0.003915 before closing at $0.003784.
• Price saw a mid-day rally but faced significant pullbacks in the afternoon and overnight.
• Volume spiked during the early afternoon rally and remained elevated into the evening.
• RSI indicates overbought conditions at peak, followed by oversold levels in the closing hours.
• Volatility expanded during the rally, while Bollinger Bands show price consolidation in the latter half.

Opening Summary and Price Action

Turbo/USDC (TURBOUSDC) opened at $0.003746 on October 2, 2025, at 12:00 ET, and closed at $0.003784 on October 3, 2025, at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of $0.003915 and a low of $0.003746. Total trading volume was 170,069,612.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $646,960 (based on TURBOUSDC price). The price action was characterized by a mid-day rally followed by a broad consolidation and pullback in the overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

The structure over the past 24 hours reveals a strong upward impulse in the afternoon hours, followed by a sharp reversal and pullback in the overnight session. The price formed a bullish engulfing pattern during the afternoon rally, suggesting momentum to the upside. However, a bearish reversal occurred as price closed below the consolidation range, forming a potential bearish continuation pattern. Key support levels can be observed at $0.003780–$0.003785 and $0.003765–$0.003770, while resistance is forming between $0.003800 and $0.003815.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, TURBOUSDC has been fluctuating around the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. At the peak of the rally, price traded above both, but has since fallen below them, indicating a loss of bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages appear to be converging in the $0.003780–$0.003790 range, suggesting a potential support zone for the next 24 hours if bearish pressure continues.

MACD and RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line during the afternoon rally, signaling bullish momentum. However, this was short-lived, as the MACD line quickly reversed below the signal line, confirming the bearish reversal. The RSI reached overbought levels (above 70) during the rally, followed by a sharp decline into oversold territory (below 30) in the last few hours, suggesting a potential bottoming process. This divergence between price and RSI could be a sign of exhaustion on the downside and a possible reversal setup in the near term.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the afternoon rally, pushing price to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. However, the price quickly retracted toward the middle band and then moved toward the lower band during the overnight session, indicating a contraction in volatility. This volatility contraction could precede a breakout or breakdown, depending on whether price remains above or below the middle band. If the price breaks the lower band, it could indicate a deeper pullback to the next support level.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon rally, particularly between 19:00–22:00 ET, when price surged from $0.003840 to $0.003915. This was followed by a sharp increase in volume during the overnight sell-off, confirming the bearish reversal. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with higher turnover during both the rally and the sell-off. A divergence in the relationship between price and volume in the last few hours has emerged—price has continued to fall while volume has stabilized—raising a cautious flag for further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute rally from $0.003840 to $0.003915, key levels for potential support are at 38.2% ($0.003878) and 61.8% ($0.003853). Price has already broken below both levels and is currently testing the $0.003780–$0.003785 range. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the recent high to low suggest potential support at $0.003760–$0.003770 and resistance at $0.003800–$0.003815.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration employs a combination of RSI and MACD crossover signals for entry and exit points. Specifically, a long position is triggered when RSI dips below 30 (oversold condition) and the MACD line crosses above the signal line. Conversely, a short position is initiated when RSI rises above 70 (overbought condition) and the MACD line crosses below the signal line. A stop-loss is placed at the 20-period moving average for long positions and at the 200-period moving average for short positions.

Given the current setup, the strategy would have opened a short position during the late-night sell-off and may continue to hold it until the MACD confirms a bullish crossover. Traders could also consider a long setup if price stabilizes above the $0.003780 level with confirmation from both RSI and MACD. This approach is well-aligned with the observed patterns and could serve as a robust framework for managing entries in the next 24 hours.