Turbo/USDC Market Overview

• Price closed below the 12:00 ET open amid bearish momentum
• Intraday high at 0.003929, low at 0.003701; 24-hour close at 0.003662
• Volatility expanded in the afternoon; volume surged near the daily close
• RSI suggests oversold conditions; Bollinger Bands widened
• No strong reversal patterns emerged; trend remains bearish

TURBOUSDC opened at 0.003829 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and closed at 0.003662 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET, trading between 0.003929 and 0.003701. Total volume was 119,687,255.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $450,644. Price action showed bearish continuation amid elevated volume in the last 6 hours.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish consolidation pattern after the 0.003929 high, with a breakdown below the 0.003813 support level. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 17:45–18:15 ET, followed by a long bearish shadow in the 22:15–22:30 ET and 05:00–05:15 ET candles. A small bullish reversal failed to materialize, suggesting bearish continuation. The key support level appears at 0.003750–0.003760, with resistance at 0.003830–0.003850.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period lines, confirming a longer-term bearish trend. Price is now below all three daily moving averages, reinforcing the downward bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish in the afternoon, with the line dropping below the signal line. RSI dipped into the oversold zone (<30) around 10:00–11:00 AM and remained there, but no strong reversal occurred. Momentum remained bearish, with a weak attempt to rally failing to close above 0.003780.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the afternoon as volatility increased, with price frequently trading near the lower band. A potential contraction phase may follow the current expansion, but the price has yet to show any signs of consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after 05:00 ET and again in the last 3 hours of the 24-hour window. Turnover increased in tandem, confirming the bearish breakdown. No divergence was observed between price and volume; both confirmed the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent 15-minute upswing is at 0.003810, now a key support. The 61.8% level is at 0.003760, aligning with the current consolidation range. If the trend continues lower, the next target could be 0.003720.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when TURBOUSDC breaks below a 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss above the most recent swing high. A take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach assumes that bearish momentum and trend lines remain intact and that volume confirms the breakouts. Given the current environment, this strategy appears viable for the next 24 hours, provided no strong bullish divergences emerge.