Tunisia’s Iron Fist: Why This Market is a Minefield Right Now

Investors, buckle up—Tunisia is in the throes of a perfect storm. The recent sentencing of opposition figures to decades in prison isn’t just a political drama; it’s a red flag for anyone considering dipping into this North African economy. Let’s break down the risks and why this market is a disaster waiting to happen.

Political Repression: The New Normal

President Kais Saied has been steadily dismantling democracy since 2021, and 2025 is no exception. Over 40 opposition leaders—including former Prime Minister Rached Ghannouchi and activist Sihem Bensedrine—are behind bars on charges like “conspiring against state security.” The trials are a farce: defendants like Jaouhar Ben Mbarek, who started a hunger strike in March, are denied basic rights. Even journalists like Borhen Bsaies face jail for “fake news.” This isn’t governance—it’s a dictatorship in drag.

The 2024 election, where Saied won with 90% of the vote, was a sham. Turnout was a record-low 28.8%, proving the public’s rage. Yet the West is complicit: the EU turned a blind eye to repression in exchange for Tunisia’s help stifling migration. This silence emboldens Saied’s crackdowns, making political risk here off the charts.

Economic Collapse: The IMF’s Rejected Lifeline

Tunisia’s economy is in freefall. Public debt now exceeds 90% of GDP, and the IMF offered a $1.9 billion bailout—but Saied rejected it, accusing the West of “interference.” That’s madness. Without the IMF, Tunisia risks default, which would crater the dinar and starve the country of imports.

The economy is already gasping. Unemployment is stuck above 15%, and inflation is eating savings. Protests erupt over bread lines and power cuts, but Saied’s crackdowns suppress dissent—temporarily. Meanwhile, state-owned enterprises like energy giant STEG are basket cases, losing money and crippling budgets.

Foreign Policy: Betting on Rogue Nations

In a desperate bid for cash, Saied is cozying up to China, Russia, and Iran. Beijing’s $1.3 billion infrastructure deal in 2024? That’s a loan with strings—no democratic accountability, just debt bondage. Russian military activity in Djerba and Iranian diplomatic overtures? This isn’t diversification; it’s aligning with autocrats who care less about governance and more about geopolitical pawns.

Why Investors Should Stay Far, Far Away

The writing is on the wall. Tunisia’s repression fuels economic collapse, and its pivot to rogue nations won’t solve its problems—it’ll deepen them. The IMF’s offer was a lifeline, not a threat. Rejection of reform means no foreign investment, no growth, and no hope for the dinar.

Final Verdict: A Bleak Outlook

Tunisia is a cautionary tale. With 90% debt/GDP, a 90.69% fraudulent election win, and 15% unemployment, the numbers scream risk. Investors should avoid this market like the plague. Unless Saied reverses course—releases political prisoners, reinstates democracy, and accepts IMF help—this economy is headed for a cliff.

In the meantime, stick to safer shores. Tunisia’s “stability” is a mirage.

Data note: IMF statistics, World Bank economic reports, and Tunisian government election data were used to compile this analysis.