TTEC's Indian Gamble: A New Mohali Center Could Turn the Tide—or Sink It?

TTEC Holdings (NASDAQ:TTEC) is doubling down on India with the launch of a new 400-job customer experience center in Mohali, Punjab. This $23 million bet on the region’s tech talent and cultural ethos of seva (selfless service) could be a masterstroke—or a risky gamble for a company already drowning in red ink. Let’s break down the numbers and the risks.

The Mohali Move: A Strategic Play or a Desperate Gamble?

The expansion in Mohali isn’t just about cutting costs. TTEC is targeting the high-margin healthcare sector, a space where compliance-heavy, long-term client relationships matter. The center will use AI tools like TTEC Clarity (which softens accents for clearer customer interactions) and TTEC Perform (agent performance optimization), positioning itself as a tech-driven CX powerhouse.

But here’s the catch: TTEC is doing this while grappling with $978 million in debt and a 10.4% revenue decline in 2024. The new jobs and tech investments are a long-term play, but the company’s 2025 revenue is projected to drop further to $2.04 billion—a 7.6% year-over-year slide.

The Numbers Are Ugly, But There’s a Silver Lining

Despite the gloom, TTEC isn’t entirely without hope. Its GuruFocus GF Value of $23.62 (vs. a current price of $3.89) suggests the market is pricing in a worst-case scenario. Analysts see a 60.45% upside to $6.23, and the company’s adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to jump to 11% in 2025 from 9.2% in 2024.

The real kicker? TTEC’s healthcare focus. The sector’s regulated nature and long client contracts could stabilize revenue. “Healthcare clients don’t bail easily,” says one analyst. “This plays to TTEC’s strength in compliance-heavy industries.”

The Debt Bomb: Can TTEC Dig Out?

Here’s where the alarm bells ring. TTEC’s Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 (a “distress” rating) and rising LT-debt-to-asset ratio (now 60%) mean debt is piling up faster than assets. The company burned through $59 million in operating cash in 2024 and is relying on asset sales—like a $45.5 million Colorado real estate sale—to chip away at debt.

Even worse, earnings estimates keep dropping. Analysts have slashed 2026 EPS forecasts from $1.90 to just $0.07. Meanwhile, TTEC’s stock has dropped 52% over the past year, and it’s now trading at just 10% of GuruFocus’s intrinsic value estimate.

The Bottom Line: Hold for Now—But Keep an Eye on Earnings

TTEC’s Mohali expansion is a bold move, but it’s not enough to fix its financial woes overnight. Investors should hold if they’re in for the long haul, but only buy if shares dip below $3.50. Here’s why:

1. The GuruFocus GF Value is a red flag, not a buy signal. A $23.62 target implies TTEC needs to turn around its margins and debt—no small feat.
2. Watch earnings on May 8. If TTEC can beat lowered Q1 2025 expectations (consensus: -$0.05 EPS), it might start to regain credibility.
3. Debt reduction is key. TTEC’s suspension of dividends and asset sales are steps in the right direction, but its leverage ratio remains a ticking clock.

Final Verdict: A Risky Roll of the Dice

TTEC’s Mohali bet could pay off if it can stabilize healthcare revenue and slash debt. But with a negative EPS of -$6.75 over the past 12 months and a history of missing earnings, this is a high-risk play. For now, stay on the sidelines unless shares crater further—or TTEC starts hitting those AI-powered targets.

Investors, this isn’t a buy recommendation—it’s a warning shot. TTEC needs to prove it can turn this ship around before the debt storm sinks it.