TSX futures rise on trade optimism, Wall Street futures up on trade hopes

Stock markets in Canada and the US are expected to rise on trade optimism, with futures for the TSX inching up and Wall Street futures also rising. Earnings season is underway, with big tech companies set to report their quarterly results. The US and EU are also set to discuss trade talks.

Stock markets in Canada and the United States are expected to rise on trade optimism, with futures for the TSX inching up and Wall Street futures also rising. Earnings season is underway, with big tech companies set to report their quarterly results. The United States and the European Union are also set to discuss trade talks.

Futures linked to Toronto's main stock index edged higher on Friday, with investor sentiment buoyed by domestic trade updates and U.S. data signaling economic resilience. Futures on the S&P/TSX index (.SXFcv1) rose 0.2% at 1,636.40 points by 06:20 a.m. ET (1020 GMT) [1]. Canada's International Trade Minister pointed to interest in advancing trade talks with the South American bloc Mercosur, comprising Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, as Ottawa seeks to diversify its trade relations beyond the U.S. Prime Minister Mark Carney and his team are in talks with U.S. President Donald Trump to reach a trade agreement before the August 1 deadline, when 35% tariffs are set to take effect. In other trade-related news, Canada and New Zealand reached a "mutually satisfactory" resolution to a long-term dispute over dairy product access, which will allow for better access to the Canadian market [1].

The market is gearing up for the start of the bank earnings season, which will provide insights into the financial sector's health. Major US banks are expected to report results this week, with renewed investor enthusiasm about the IPO and M&A markets, along with Wells Fargo's (WFC) freedom from a decade of more stringent regulatory restrictions, likely to feature prominently [2]. The upcoming release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) will set the economic agenda for the week. Wall Street economists expect to see inflation move further from the Fed's goals, with core consumer prices set to rise 2.9% over the prior year in June [2].

European shares were subdued early in the session on Monday as investors assessed a mixed bag of corporate earnings while awaiting a potential trade deal between the United States and the European Union. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) was down 0.01% at 546.97 points, as of 0719 GMT [3]. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he was confident that Washington can secure a trade deal with the EU, but August 1 is a hard deadline for tariffs to kick in. He added there is "plenty of room" for a deal after speaking with European negotiators [3].

The EUR/USD pair trades calmly around 1.1670 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair oscillates in a limited range, with investors awaiting fresh development on trade negotiations between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). On Monday, US President Donald Trump confirmed that Washington is still in talks with Brussels to secure a trade pact before the August 1 deadline, despite having announced 30% tariffs on imports from the EU over the weekend [4].

In summary, the positive sentiment around trade optimism and the commencement of earnings season is likely to drive stock markets in Canada and the United States. However, uncertainty around tariffs and inflation may pose risks to market stability.

References:
[1] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3TF0RT:0-tsx-futures-rise-on-trade-optimism-and-u-s-economic-data/
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/intercontinental-exchange-ice-pre-market-update-nvidia-resumes-ai-chip-sales-bank-earnings-season-begins-june-consumer-price-index-release-2507/
[3] https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/european-shares-flat-investors-assess-mixed-earnings-focus-us-eu-trade-talks-2025-07-21/
[4] https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-trades-quietly-below-11700-as-investors-await-fresh-cues-on-us-eu-trade-talks-202507150445