TSMC Rises 1.42% to $292.19 as Technicals Signal Renewed Bullish Momentum

TSMC (TSM) rose 1.42% in the latest session, closing at $292.19 after trading between $290.49 and $296.06. This positive momentum follows a period of consolidation near the $288 level observed over the prior two sessions, suggesting renewed bullish interest. The technical landscape reveals several confluence points worth monitoring.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns for TSMC show a significant bullish engulfing formation on October 1, 2025 (3.29% gain on high volume), which reversed the preceding downtrend. The subsequent sessions formed a doji on October 2 (indicating indecision) followed by a decisive white candle on October 3, reinforcing $288 as immediate support. Resistance is clearly established at $296.06 (October 3 high), with a decisive close above this level likely triggering further upside. Key historical support resides near $273.23 (September 29 low).
Moving Average Theory
The moving average structure confirms a robust uptrend. The 50-day MA (approximately $258) recently crossed bullishly above the 200-day MA (around $230) in August 2025, establishing a "golden cross." Current price ($292.19) trades decisively above all key moving averages (50/100/200-day), with the ascending 50-day MA acting as dynamic support. The alignment of shorter-term averages above longer-term ones signals sustained bullish momentum, though extended valuations increase near-term pullback probability.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD lines crossed bullishly in late September, with the histogram expanding positively – confirming strengthening upward momentum. The KDJ oscillator shows the %K line (82) hovering near overbought territory while %D (78) remains elevated. This dual signal suggests continued upside potential in the immediate term, though the stretched KDJ reading flags exhaustion risk. A bearish MACD crossover or KDJ dip below 80 would signal potential consolidation.
Bollinger Bands
Price is pressing against the upper Bollinger Band ($294) after the band width expanded dramatically in early October – a volatility breakout confirming the bullish impulse. The September squeeze period (bands contracting to 6-month narrowest) resolved upward, supporting continuation patterns. Sustained trading near the upper band signals strength, but closes outside it would indicate overbought conditions historically followed by mean-reversion pullbacks toward the 20-day SMA ($283).
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 43% above average during the October 1 bullish engulfing candle, validating directional conviction. The subsequent advance saw lower volume (-24% below average on October 3), creating a minor divergence that warrants caution. However, the overarching volume profile remains constructive: significant upside moves (September 23: +3.7%, October 1: +3.29%) were confirmed by above-average volume, while pullbacks occurred on diminishing activity.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (67) approaches overbought territory but hasn’t crossed the 70 warning threshold. Prior instances of RSI exceeding 70 (notably July 2025 and September 2025) preceded brief consolidations rather than reversals, suggesting that overbought readings in this strong trend may not immediately derail momentum. Current RSI trajectory aligns with MACD/KDJ momentum readings, supporting near-term bullish bias, though the indicator’s position warrants vigilance for negative divergences.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the primary uptrend from April 2025 low ($151.67) to October 2025 high ($296.06) shows critical levels: 23.6% retracement at $268.30 and 38.2% at $252.30. Recent price action respected the 23.6% level during September’s pullback ($273.23 low). This confluence zone ($268-$273) aligns with the rising 50-day MA, creating a high-probability support area. Upside extension targets reside near psychological resistance at $300.
Confluence and Divergence
Multiple indicators converge on bullish signals: the MACD/KDJ momentum alignment, volume-confirmed breakout above $288, and Golden Cross formation. The primary divergence involves RSI/price and volume/price on the October 3 advance – both cautioning about near-term exhaustion without immediate bearish reversal signals. Key resistance at $296.06 remains the breakout pivot, while Fibonacci/MA confluence at $268 creates a high-confidence downside buffer. Overall technical structure favors continuation after potential consolidation.