TSMC Posts Impressive December Sales Growth, Eyes Robust Q4 Earnings Report Next Week

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest chipmaker and a key supplier to tech giants like NVIDIA and Apple, posted a stellar 57.8% year-over-year surge in December revenue, a significant acceleration from the 34% increase seen in November. This remarkable growth brought TSMC's 2024 total revenue to NT$2,894.31 billion ($93.6 billion USD), a 33.9% annual increase, surpassing its 30% growth target in US dollar terms.

For the October-December period, TSMC reported consolidated revenue of NT$868.5 billion ($26.3 billion USD), a 39% rise year-over-year, beating the Street's estimate of NT$854.7 billion. December revenue alone reached NT$278.16 billion, marking the company’s highest monthly revenue figure since its public debut 30 years ago. This strong finish positions TSMC to deliver solid results in its upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report, set for January 16, 2025.

AI Demand Fuels Revenue Growth

TSMC’s extraordinary performance was underpinned by surging demand for AI hardware, with the company previously stating that server AI processors' contribution to its revenue would more than triple in the second half of 2024. The growing appetite for AI-related semiconductors has led to increased investments in data centers by major technology players like Alphabet and Microsoft. Microsoft’s announcement of an $80 billion data center investment this fiscal year exemplifies the robust demand driving TSMC’s growth.

However, some analysts warn of potential risks. Concerns around overbuilding, power shortages, and the lack of revolutionary AI applications could challenge the industry's sustainability in the medium term. These uncertainties will likely be a focal point during TSMC's earnings call as investors seek clarity on its outlook for AI-related growth in 2025 and beyond.

Geopolitical and Technological Challenges Loom

Despite the optimism surrounding AI, TSMC faces mounting geopolitical and technological challenges. The company remains heavily reliant on Apple, a key customer for its iPhone chips, and geopolitical tensions around Taiwan could add layers of complexity. Moreover, TSMC's rapid global expansion plans, including new facilities in Japan, Germany, Europe, and Arizona, are set to push its capital expenditures to $30 billion in 2025, reflecting both opportunity and risk.

TSMC is also contending with increasing competition in the semiconductor space, as other companies race to capitalize on AI demand. Nevertheless, analysts expect TSMC to maintain robust profitability, with gross margins projected to reach their highest level in two years at 58% or higher. These margins will be a critical metric to watch as the company balances growth opportunities with rising costs.

Market Performance and Investor Sentiment

Despite the record-breaking December sales, TSMC’s shares slipped slightly in Friday’s trading, reflecting broader market trends and profit-taking after the stock recently hit record highs. TSMC’s market capitalization has nearly doubled over the past year, reaching approximately $1.1 trillion USD, as investor confidence in its growth prospects remains strong. However, concerns about when the AI-driven growth might decelerate have tempered enthusiasm in the near term.

With its upcoming earnings report, TSMC will provide key updates on its financial outlook for 2025, including anticipated gross margin trends, capital expenditures, and industry growth projections. Investors are particularly eager to learn how the company plans to sustain its leadership in an increasingly competitive semiconductor landscape.

Looking Ahead

As TSMC prepares to release its full Q4 2024 earnings next week, the company’s ability to sustain its growth trajectory in the face of evolving market dynamics will be closely scrutinized. While AI demand has been a clear driver of recent performance, questions about overbuilding and geopolitical risks linger. Nevertheless, with a strong foundation and ambitious expansion plans, TSMC is well-positioned to capitalize on the continued digitization and AI adoption trends shaping the global economy.