TSMC Jumps 4.86% to 242.62 as Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

TSMC (TSM) rose 4.86% in the most recent trading session, closing at 242.62 with a trading range between 240.8 and 247.84. This strong performance warrants a multi-indicator technical assessment as follows.
Candlestick Theory
The latest session formed a bullish candle closing near the high, indicating robust buying pressure. Key resistance is now evident at 247.84 (today’s high), aligned with the July 31 peak of 247.41. Support emerges at 240.8 (today’s low), reinforced by the August 4 low of 236.39. A breakout above 247.84 may signal continuation, while failure could see retesting of 235–236 support.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (currently near 223) and 100-day SMA (~210) slope upward, confirming a long-term bullish trend. Short-term momentum is positive as price holds above both averages. The 200-day SMA (∼195) provides foundational support. Golden Cross formations earlier this year (50-day above 200-day) reinforce structural strength.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bullish crossover after recent consolidation, with histogram bars expanding positively—hinting at accelerating upward momentum. KDJ’s %K (83) and %D (78) are in overbought territory but not yet divergent, suggesting near-term strength could persist before potential exhaustion.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply in early August, indicating reduced volatility before the latest breakout. Price now rides the upper band (∼244), typically signaling strong upside momentum. A sustained move outside the band may foreshorten consolidation, while a reversion toward the 20-day midline (∼235) would imply normalization.
Volume-Price Relationship
Today’s 4.86% surge occurred on 17.6M shares—well above the 10-day average volume of 12.3M. This volume confirmation validates buyer conviction. Notably, high-volume down days (e.g., August 1: 13.5M shares, -2.65%) lacked follow-through selling, underscoring underlying demand.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI sits at 68, approaching overbought thresholds but not yet extreme. This aligns with the KDJ overbought signal but without bearish divergence. Historically, RSI has peaked above 75 during strong rallies (e.g., April 9 at 80), allowing room for further upside before caution triggers.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing from the March 4 high (206.25) to the April 9 peak (248.28), key retracement levels provide targets. The latest surge faces resistance at the 78.6% level (245.5), slightly above today’s close. A decisive break above this could test the 100% extension (248.28). Support converges at the 61.8% level (233.5), echoing candlestick and moving average supports.
Confluence and Divergence
Strong confluence exists around 235–236, where Fibonacci support, the 20-day Bollinger midline, and the August 1 low intersect. Volume-backed bullish candlesticks and MACD momentum align positively. However, KDJ and RSI nearing overbought levels against stalled volume growth in prior sessions creates a minor divergence, warranting vigilance for near-term pullbacks. Overall, the weight of evidence leans bullish above 235, with 248 as the next significant hurdle.