TSMC's $4.03B Volume Spike Drives Top-20 U.S. Rank Amid U.S. Tech Boom China Decline

Market Snapshot

On October 27, 2025, TSMC (TSM) closed with a 1.12% gain, marking a significant rise in trading activity. The stock’s daily trading volume surged to $4.03 billion, a 55.92% increase from the previous day, securing its position among the top 20 most actively traded stocks in the U.S. market. This sharp volume spike suggests heightened investor interest, potentially driven by developments in TSMC’s business outlook and broader semiconductor industry dynamics.

Key Drivers

TSMC’s performance on October 27 reflects a complex interplay of strategic shifts in its customer base, U.S. export controls, and evolving demand in the AI and chip manufacturing sectors. The company’s third-quarter earnings, bolstered by strong orders from Apple and Nvidia, pushed its full-year revenue forecast upward to $122 billion, a 35% growth year-over-year. However, this optimism is tempered by a sharp decline in business from China, where key clients like Huawei-affiliated Sophgo and cryptocurrency chipmaker Bitmain have seen their orders collapse. Sophgo, accused of aiding Huawei in circumventing U.S. sanctions, reportedly lost all wafer orders this year, while Bitmain’s contribution to TSMC’s revenue dwindled to just 2%.

The U.S. export controls have reshaped TSMC’s geographic and customer composition, accelerating its pivot away from China. This shift underscores the semiconductor giant’s reliance on U.S.-aligned clients to offset waning demand in Asia. While TSMC’s near-term financials remain robust, the long-term implications of reduced Chinese business could weigh on its growth trajectory. Analysts note that TSMC’s ability to maintain its market leadership hinges on its role in manufacturing advanced chips for AI and other high-growth sectors, even as competition intensifies.

Simultaneously, the global AI infrastructure landscape is evolving, with TSMC positioned as a critical enabler. Despite Nvidia’s dominance in the GPU market, emerging players like Google and Amazon Web Services are investing heavily in custom AI accelerators. TSMC’s manufacturing capabilities remain indispensable, as these accelerators will still require its advanced nodes for production. This dynamic reinforces TSMC’s strategic importance but also highlights potential risks if alternative chip designs or manufacturing hubs gain traction.

Another pivotal development is the collaboration between Chinese firms and Huawei on high-bandwidth memory (HBM3) technology. While TSMC is not directly involved in this initiative, the progress of HBM3 underscores the intensifying competition in AI memory solutions. As Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron prepare for HBM4 mass production by 2026, TSMC’s role in supplying wafers for these advanced chips could become a growth driver. However, the rise of domestic Chinese alternatives, such as CXMT’s 16-nanometer HBM3 samples, signals a potential challenge to TSMC’s long-term dominance in this space.

The broader semiconductor supply chain also faces structural headwinds. Micron’s warning of prolonged DRAM market tightness through 2026 and China’s push to localize chip production—exemplified by AMIES Technology’s lithography systems—highlight the industry’s fragility. While TSMC’s manufacturing expertise remains unmatched, these trends could pressure margins or necessitate significant capital expenditures to maintain its technological edge. For now, TSMC’s strong earnings and strategic adaptability appear to outweigh these risks, but investors remain wary of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

In summary, TSMC’s recent performance reflects a delicate balance between near-term growth and long-term challenges. Its financial success is underpinned by demand from U.S. tech giants, yet its future depends on navigating shifting trade policies, AI industry competition, and the rise of alternative manufacturing ecosystems. The coming quarters will test TSMC’s ability to sustain its leadership amid these crosscurrents.