TSLA Options Signal Downside Risk: Put OI at $250 Dominates as Supply Chain Woes and Weak Sales Weigh

• TSLA’s put/call open interest ratio is 0.81, with puts dominating at $250 and $240 strikes.
• Block trades show heavy hedging at $250 puts expiring Jan 16, 2026.
• Technical indicators hint at short-term bearish momentum but long-term bullish structure.

Here’s the core insight: TSLA’s options market is painting a clear picture of near-term bearishness. The put/call imbalance, combined with a short-term bearish Kline pattern and a MACD histogram dipping below zero, suggests traders are bracing for a pullback. But the long-term 200D MA at $358.08 and Bollinger Bands still show bullish potential. The key question is whether the stock can hold above $428.63 (30D support) or if the $250 put-heavy OI will dominate.

Bearish OI at $250 and $240 Puts Signals Hedging, Not Speculation

The options chain is telling a story of caution. For this Friday’s expiration, the top OTM put has 42,595 open contracts at $190, but the real action is at $250 and $240. The $250 put (TSLA20260116P250) has 28,711 open contracts for next Friday’s expiration, while the $240 put (TSLA20260116P240) has 17,769. This isn’t just retail panic—it’s institutional hedging. The block trade at TSLA20260116P410 (400 contracts, $1.88M turnover) reinforces this. Traders are locking in downside protection ahead of the Robotaxi rollout and Q4 earnings.

News Flow: Supply Chain Woes and Sales Slumps Confirm Bearish Sentiment

The recent news isn’t helping. L&F’s $2.9B battery deal cut to $7.386M is a red flag for production costs. Q4 delivery estimates at 422,850 (15% YoY drop) and Cybertruck’s underperformance further erode confidence. Even Michael Burry’s neutrality on shorting TSLA hints at structural risks. The energy business’s 44% growth is a bright spot, but it’s not enough to offset automotive headwinds. This news aligns with the options data: investors are pricing in near-term risks but still holding long-term bullish bets.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Short-Term Puts and Strategic Calls

For options traders, the most attractive plays are:

• Sell the TSLA20260116P250 put (next Friday’s expiration) if TSLA holds above $428.63. The $250 strike is a psychological floor, and the high OI suggests a potential short squeeze if the stock rallies.
• Buy the TSLA20260116C492.5 call (next Friday’s expiration) if TSLA breaks above $456.55 (intraday high). The $492.5 strike has 9,069 open contracts, indicating some bullish conviction.

For stock traders:

• Short TSLA near $452.33 with a stop at $451.75 (intraday low). Target $428.63 (30D support) or $425.55 (200D support).
• Buy TSLA near $430.60 (30D resistance) if it breaks above $456.55, with a stop at $430.60. Target $463.68 (middle Bollinger Band).

Volatility on the Horizon: Robotaxi or Correction?

The next 30 days will be critical. If Robotaxi progress accelerates and Q4 sales beat estimates, the $490 call (TSLA20260116C490) could see a surge. But if supply chain issues persist or regulatory delays hit, the $250 put-heavy OI could trigger a sharp drop. Either way, the options market is pricing in a volatile January. Stay nimble—this is a stock where sentiment can shift overnight.