TSLA Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Key Strikes and Trade Setups for Dec 19–26

• TSLA surges 3.15% to $482.00, breaking above 30D SMA of $434.79
• Options data shows 66,633 open calls at $500 strike vs. 37,835 puts at $170
• Block trades hint at institutional positioning ahead of 2025-12-19 expiry

Here’s what’s happening: TSLA’s options market is screaming bullish while technicals align with a short-term breakout. The stock’s 3.15% intraday gain has traders eyeing the $490 Bollinger Band as a potential target. But let’s dig into why this isn’t just a random rally.

Bullish Whales at Work: OTM Options and Block Trade Signals

The options chain tells a clear story. For Friday’s expiry (2025-12-19), TSLA20251219C500 dominates with 66,633 open contracts—nearly triple the nearest put (TSLA20251219P170 at 37,835). This isn’t just retail frenzy: the $500 call is 1.6% out-of-the-money, suggesting institutional players are hedging a near-term pop.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $170 strike (a 68% discount to current price) has massive open interest, indicating some big money is quietly preparing for a worst-case scenario. It’s the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” playbook—long calls for a rally, long puts as insurance.

Block trades add intrigue. A 1,200-lot call trade at TSLA20250919C380 (expiring mid-December) and a 500-lot call at TSLA20250919C400 suggest big players are locking in upside potential ahead of key expiry dates. These aren’t random trades—they’re positioning for a post-earnings bounce or regulatory resolution.

Regulatory Headwinds vs. Technical Tailwinds

Tesla’s recent 4.6% drop (triggered by California sales suspension threats) still lingers in the rearview mirror. But here’s the twist: the stock has rebounded 3.15% today despite the bad news. Why?

The market is pricing in a resolution, not a collapse. The 30-day support/resistance zone (428.63–430.61) has held firm, and RSI at 65.9 suggests we’re not in overbought territory yet. Bollinger Bands show the price is flirting with the upper band ($490.21)—a classic breakout setup.

But let’s not ignore the risks. If the California DMV finalizes its ruling, TSLA could retest the 200D SMA at $348.99. That’s a 28% drop from current levels. The options market isn’t pricing that in yet, but the $170 puts are a warning sign.

Actionable Trade Setups: Calls, Puts, and Stock Entries

For options traders:

• TSLA20251219C500 (this Friday’s expiry): Buy at $482.00 if TSLA holds above $473.12 (intraday low). Target $490.21 (Bollinger Band).
• TSLA20251226C510 (next Friday’s expiry): Buy if TSLA breaks $485.00. This gives extra time for a potential robotaxi hype rebound.
• TSLA20251219P170 (this Friday’s expiry): Buy as insurance if you’re long TSLA stock.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $473.12 (intraday low) if support holds. Target $490.21 (Bollinger Band).
• Stop-loss at $465 (below 30D SMA).
• Bearish alternative: Sell short at $485.00 if TSLA fails to break $490.21, targeting $470.00.

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for TSLA’s Next Move

The next 72 hours will test TSLA’s resolve. A close above $490.21 could trigger a parabolic move toward $520 (next call-heavy zone at $510 strike). But a drop below $473.12 would validate the puts at $170 and force a reevaluation of the California risk.

Options traders have the edge here. The 0.838 put/call ratio (calls dominate) means the market expects a rally—but the block trades and puts suggest a hedging mindset. Play both sides: long calls for the breakout, long puts for the regulatory gamble.

And for stock players? This is a high-conviction trade. If you believe Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap will overshadow near-term regulatory noise, now’s the time to act. But don’t go all-in—this is a volatile name with a 298x P/E ratio. Diversify, hedge, and watch those stop-loss levels like a hawk.