TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to Strategic Entry Zones

• TSLA trades at $462.50, down 2.67% from its 2025 high of $475.19
• Call open interest dominates (put/call ratio: 0.81), with heavy concentration at $500 and $520 strikes
• Cathie Wood’s $30M Tesla selloff contrasts with robotaxi-driven stock resilience

Here’s the takeaway: TSLA’s options market is pricing in a high-probability bullish scenario, but short-term volatility from block trades and earnings revisions demands caution. The stock sits at a critical inflection point—support at $425.55 could trigger a rebound, while a break below $419.06 (lower Bollinger Band) would signal deeper trouble.What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options market is a goldmine of hidden signals. For this Friday’s expiration (Jan 2, 2026), TSLA20260102C500 and TSLA20260102C520 calls dominate open interest, with 23,204 and 11,674 contracts respectively. That’s not just noise—it’s a vote of confidence. Traders are betting TSLA will test $500 before year-end, likely driven by robotaxi hype and AI-driven valuation optimism.

But don’t ignore the puts. TSLA20260102P250 has 42,596 open contracts—the largest put position. Think about it: someone (or a whale) is hedging against a catastrophic drop, maybe fearing a retest of 2020 levels ($190). The block trade data backs this up: a 400-lot TSLA20260116P410 put sale ($1.88M turnover) suggests institutional players are locking in downside protection ahead of the Jan 16 expiration.

News vs. Options: A Tale of Two Narratives

Cathie Wood’s $30M Tesla selloff via ARK ETFs is a red flag. When a top AI bull reduces her position, it raises questions about near-term momentum. Yet TSLA’s stock keeps climbing on robotaxi optimism—even as Q4 car sales fell 25% YoY. Analysts are split: Stifel raised its target to $483, while UBS clings to a $215 "sell" rating. The options market isn’t buying the bear case—yet.

Here’s the rub: Robotaxi hype is a double-edged sword. If Tesla misses its 2026 deployment timeline (as some whisper), the $500 call strikes could evaporate. But if the AI narrative holds, the $520 calls might become a floor, not a ceiling.

Actionable Trade Ideas for TSLA

For options traders: Buy-to-open TSLA20260102C500 at $1.75–$1.80 if TSLA breaks above its intraday high of $469.4. Target $500+ by Jan 2; stop loss if price dips below $460. For next Friday’s chain, TSLA20260109C500 (OI: 6,347) offers cheaper premium but requires a stronger move.

For stock traders: Consider entries near $428.63 (30D support) if TSLA holds above its lower Bollinger Band ($419.06). A rebound from here could target $460.99 (middle band) or $469.4 (intraday high). Avoid buying above $470 unless robotaxi news catalyzes a breakout.

For conservative hedgers: Buy TSLA20260102P250 puts at $0.80–$0.90 to cap downside risk. These expire Jan 2, giving you time to ride out short-term volatility while protecting against a 2026 earnings miss.

Volatility on the Horizon

TSLA’s story is a tug-of-war between AI euphoria and EV market realism. The options data leans bullish, but don’t ignore the puts—they’re a warning label. If robotaxi progress accelerates in Q1 2026, TSLA could revisit $500 by March. But if execution stumbles, the $425.55–$430.92 support corridor (200D range) will be a bloodbath for overleveraged longs.

Bottom line: This is a high-conviction trade for those who believe Tesla’s AI moonshot justifies its valuation. For the rest of us? Play it smart—use options to leverage upside potential while hedging the obvious risks.