TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to Strategic Entry Zones

• TSLA trades at $443.91, up 0.98% with volume surging to 14.5M shares.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $450–$500 strikes, while puts dominate at $420 and below.
• Block trades hint at institutional positioning ahead of Q4 earnings and robotaxi updates.

Here’s the core insight: TSLA’s technicals and options flow align for a bullish breakout scenario, but risks linger below $429.73 support. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Imbalance in OTM Calls, But Puts Signal Caution

The options market is split. For this Friday’s expiration, calls at $450–$500 have 15k–21k open interest, while puts at $420 and below dominate with 10k–44k OI. The put/call ratio of 0.84 (calls > puts) suggests investors are leaning long-term bullish, but the heavy put activity at $420 (just 5% below current price) shows hedging against a pullback.

Block trades add intrigue. A $3.8M call block at TSLA20250919C380 and a $1.4M put block at TSLA20250919P395 hint at positioning for Q4 catalysts—robotaxi demos, FSD v14 rollout, or earnings surprises. These trades, though expiring months ago, suggest lingering institutional interest in key price levels.

News Flow: Downgrades vs. Incentives—What’s Driving the Narrative?

Morgan Stanley’s downgrade to “Equal-weight” clashes with Tesla’s aggressive end-of-year incentives. The $0-down leases and 0% APR financing signal inventory pressure, but Melius’ “must own” upgrade highlights FSD’s long-term dominance potential.

The key tension? Short-term execution risks (FSD delays, robotaxi hurdles) vs. long-term AI/robotics upside. Investors are pricing in both: the $450–$500 call OI reflects optimism about AI-driven value, while the $420 put OI accounts for near-term profit-taking or subsidy-related dips.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

For options traders, consider:

• TSLA20251219C450 (next Friday’s $450 call): Buy if price breaks above $445. The $450 strike has 19k OI and sits just 2% above current price. A close above $445 could trigger a rally toward $470–$490, where heavy call OI exists.
• TSLA20251219P420 (next Friday’s $420 put): Buy if price dips below $435. This strike offers 7% downside protection at a cost of ~$1,500 per contract.

For stock traders, watch these levels:

• Entry near $435.70 (intraday low): If support holds, target $460–$470. Use the 30D support zone (429.73–431.28) as a hard stop.
• Breakout above $445.40 (intraday high): Aggressive buyers can target $465–$480, aligning with Bollinger Upper Band ($463.26) and heavy call OI at $465–$500.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Risk

TSLA’s path hinges on execution. A smooth FSD v14 launch or robotaxi demo could push the stock toward $470+ and trigger call OI at $490. But delays or subsidy cuts in China might force a retest of $423.57 (middle Bollinger Band).

The takeaway? Position for a controlled bullish bet with TSLA20251219C450, but keep a short-term put like TSLA20251219P420 as insurance. The stock’s 64.67 RSI isn’t overbought yet, but watch for a close above $445 to confirm momentum.

Either way, December looks like a pivotal month. The options market is already pricing in a story—now it’s up to Elon and the team to write it.