TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to $500+ Upside Potential

• TSLA trades at $479.10, down 1.3% from $485.40, with volume surging to 44.9M shares
• Call open interest dominates at $500 strike (46,436 contracts), while puts cluster at $470
• Block trades hint at institutional bets on $410–$500 price battleground

Here’s the deal: TSLA’s options market is screaming bullish—but not without risks. The stock sits near its 30-day moving average ($441.53), with technicals and options sentiment aligning for a potential push toward $500. Let’s break down why this matters for your strategy.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The call/put open interest ratio (0.79) shows clear skew toward bullish bets. This Friday’s top OTM calls are stacked at $490–$510 strikes, with the $500 call leading at 46,436 contracts. That’s not just noise—it’s a magnet for institutional money. Meanwhile, puts cluster at $470–$495, suggesting some hedging below current levels.

But here’s the twist: Block trades like TSLA20260116P410 (400 contracts sold) and TSLA20260618P410 (200 puts sold) signal big players are short-term bullish. They’re betting TSLA won’t crater before January, but the $410–$500 range could see fierce fighting. If the stock breaks above $495 (upper Bollinger Band at $502.61), the $500 calls could ignite.

News Flow: Robotaxis and Earnings Revisions Fuel the Narrative

Elon Musk’s robotaxi push is no longer a pipe dream—it’s a marketing blitz. The recent headlines about removing safety monitors in Austin Model Ys have investors salivating over autonomous-driving revenue potential. Combine that with upgraded FY2026 earnings estimates (+42% YoY) and you’ve got a recipe for optimism.

Yet the near-term numbers are shaky. Q4 2025 earnings are down 37% from last year. But here’s the rub: traders aren’t buying the short-term pain. They’re betting on the long game—robotaxis, AI, and Musk’s magic touch. That explains why TSLA’s 13.8% monthly gain outpaces the S&P 500’s 2.6%.

Actionable Trades: Calls, Puts, and Price Levels to Watch

For options players, the TSLA20260102C490 call (expiring next Friday) is a no-brainer if the stock rebounds above $473.82 (today’s low). With RSI at 62.15 and MACD (15.10) above its signal line, a bounce is plausible. Target $495 as a quick win; $500+ for bigger gains.

Stock traders: Consider entries near $430 (30-day support) with a stop below $425. If TSLA holds here, push higher toward $458.56 (middle Bollinger Band). For the bearish, a TSLA20260102P470 put could cap downside risk if the stock dips below $470—where 14,028 puts already lurk.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Caution

TSLA’s story is a tug-of-war between near-term earnings pressures and long-term moonshots. The options market is pricing in a $500+ future, but don’t ignore the $425–$430 support zone. If the stock cracks that, the $414.51 lower Bollinger Band becomes a hard floor.

Bottom line: This is a stock with momentum and narrative. The robotaxi hype, coupled with a bullish options setup, gives bulls a green light—but keep a leash on risk. As Musk would say, "Move fast, but don’t break things."