TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strikes and Block Trades Point to $420–$450 Breakout Potential

• TSLA surges 4.33% to $414.42, trading near its $400 fair value upgrade but below 30D/200D moving averages.
• Put/Call OI ratio at 0.78 (calls dominate), with heavy call OI at $450 and $430 strikes; block trades hint at institutional bullishness.
• RSI at 34.18 (oversold) and Bollinger Bands suggest a potential rebound, but MACD remains bearish (-9.99).
• Musk’s SpaceX/xAI merger and robotaxi delays pose risks, but solar expansion and Optimus production could drive long-term upside.

Options OI and Block Trades: A Bullish Battle at $420–$450

The options market is painting a clear picture: bulls are stacking up. For this Friday’s expirations, the TSLA20260213C420 call has 2,311 contracts traded in a buy block trade, while the TSLA20260213C450 call holds 14,905 open contracts. These strikes act like emotional guardrails—bulls want TSLA to break above $420, but fear a test of the $450 "psychological ceiling." Meanwhile, puts are clustered at $300–$360, suggesting hedgers are bracing for a drop below $400. The TSLA20260213P300 put (21,421 OI) is a red flag: if TSLA closes below $360 this week, panic could follow.

Block trades add intrigue. A $1.4M buy of TSLA20260213C420 calls and a $1.35M sell of TSLA20260220P420 puts signal a high-stakes bet: big players expect a short-term pop but want downside insurance. The $420–$450 range is now a war zone.

News-Driven Narrative: Robotaxi Hype vs. Musk’s Diversification Risks

Tesla’s fair value upgrade to $400 and solar expansion plans are bullish, but Musk’s $1.25T SpaceX/xAI merger is a wildcard. Analysts worry this could drain resources from robotaxi and Optimus timelines—both critical for TSLA’s 2026 story. The recent 11% stock decline in 2026 so far reflects this tension: investors love the long-term vision but doubt execution without Musk’s full focus.

Here’s the twist: TSLA’s options activity contradicts the news. If the market priced in Musk’s distraction, why are calls at $450 so popular? It suggests traders still believe in robotaxi’s 2026 rollout. The key is whether Tesla can hit $450 before March—failure could trigger a reevaluation of Musk’s priorities.

Actionable Trades: Calls at $420 and Puts at $300 for Feb 13 Expiry

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy TSLA20260213C420 calls. TSLA needs to close above $420 to validate this strike; if it does, the $450 call could act as a momentum catalyst.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy TSLA20260213P300 puts. If TSLA drops below $402.90 (lower Bollinger Band), this strike offers protection against a sharper selloff.

For stock traders:

• Entry: Consider buying TSLA near $414.42 if it holds above $402.90 (lower Bollinger Band).
• Targets: First resistance at $430 (30D/200D MA convergence), then $450 (key psychological level).
• Stop-Loss: Below $400 would invalidate the bullish case; exit if TSLA closes below $397.77 (intraday low).

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Strategic Risks

TSLA’s options and technicals scream for a breakout above $420, but Musk’s moonshot diversification adds friction. The coming weeks will test whether the market buys into robotaxi’s 2026 timeline or punishes Tesla for Musk’s distractions. For now, the $420–$450 range is the battleground—trade it with clear stops and a plan to reassess after Feb 13 expirations. If TSLA can’t clear $450 by then, the bullish narrative may unravel. But if it does? The $760 call OI (46,032 contracts) suggests someone’s already dreaming big.