TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias Amid FSD Shift: Key Strikes to Watch for 1/16 Expiry

• TSLA drops 2.7% to $435.13, breaking below 30D support at $446.22
• Options market shows 25% more call open interest than puts, with heavy OI at $500C and $250P strikes
• Block trades reveal whales selling $430 puts (2/20 expiry) and buying $460 calls (5/15 expiry)

The market is betting on a rebound. Despite today’s sharp drop, options data and technicals suggest a short-term bullish setup. Here’s how to navigate the crossroads of FSD strategy shifts and institutional positioning.Bullish Sentiment in Options and Block Trades

Options traders are piling into calls and puts at specific strike levels. For Friday’s expiry (1/16), the $500 call (OI: 49,892) and $250 put (OI: 42,435) stand out. The 0.815 put/call ratio (calls dominate) shows more conviction in upside potential. But don’t ignore the bearish signal: the $170 put (OI: 58,219) suggests some hedging against a deeper selloff.

Block trades add intrigue. A 900-lot sale of $430 puts (TSLA20260220P430) implies big players are betting on a rebound to $430 as support. Meanwhile, a 200-lot buy of $460 calls (TSLA20260515C460) hints at long-term bullishness. These moves suggest a "buy the dip" mentality, but with caution if the stock tests lower Bollinger Band levels ($420.75).

FSD Strategy Shifts and Market Realities

Tesla’s pivot to FSD subscriptions has sparked mixed reactions. While the $99/month fee lowers barriers, it also delays revenue realization—a concern for investors used to Tesla’s one-time software sales. Nvidia’s AI advancements add pressure, but the stock’s 297 P/E ratio still reflects high expectations. The legal mediation and EEOC case could weigh on sentiment, but options data shows more urgency to buy calls than sell them.

Actionable Trade Ideas

1. Options Play: Buy the TSLA20260116C470 call if the stock bounces off $425.55 (200D support). Target $446.21 (30D resistance) with a stop below $420.75. The $470 strike offers leverage if the block trade at $430 puts holds.
2. Stock Play: Consider entries near $425.55 if RSI (30) triggers a rebound. Set a tight stop at $420.75 and target $446.21. A bullish breakout above $447.43 (30D resistance) would validate the short-term trend.
3. Spread Strategy: Sell the TSLA20260116P250 put against a long TSLA20260116C470 call. This captures premium while capping downside risk at $250.

Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s options market is pricing in a volatile week. The $500 call (1/16 expiry) and $460 call (5/15 expiry) show where smart money is positioning for a rebound. But don’t ignore the $170 put’s OI—it’s a warning sign if the stock can’t hold above $420.75. For now, the data leans bullish, but patience is key. As Musk’s Delaware win clarifies executive incentives, the real test will be whether FSD subscriptions drive adoption faster than Nvidia’s AI disrupts the narrative.