TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Focus on $500 Calls and Strategic Entry Points as Robotaxi Hype Builds

• TSLA trades at $479.48, down 1.22% from its previous close, but remains above key moving averages.
• Options market shows heavy call open interest at the $500 strike (46,436 contracts) and bearish puts at $190 (33,612 contracts).
• Analysts raised price targets, and Tesla’s robotaxi progress fuels long-term optimism despite near-term earnings caution.

Here’s the core insight: TSLA’s options activity and technicals suggest a bullish bias with upside potential toward $500, but traders should watch for short-term volatility as the stock tests support levels. The put/call ratio (0.787 for open interest) leans heavily toward calls, especially at the $500 strike, which could act as a self-fulfilling price target if buyers step in.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in the $500 Strike

The options market is screaming about one thing: TSLA20260102C500. With 46,436 open interest at this strike (the top OTM call for this Friday), it’s clear institutional players are positioning for a move above $500. This aligns with Tesla’s 30-day support/resistance range (428.63–430.61) and the upper Bollinger Band at $502.61.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $190 strike (33,612 open interest) is an extreme bearish bet, likely from hedgers or short-sellers. While it hints at downside risk, the sheer volume of calls suggests the market expects a rebound. Block trades like the TSLA20250919C380 ($3.8M turnover) and TSLA20260116P410 ($1.88M) also signal big players are testing both bullish and bearish scenarios. The TSLA20260618P410 block trade (sold put) implies long-term caution, but the immediate focus remains on the $500 level.

News Flow: Robotaxi Hype vs. Earnings Reality

Tesla’s robotaxi push and AI energy solutions are fueling long-term optimism. Deutsche Bank and Truist raised price targets to $500 and $444, respectively, citing autonomy as a key driver. But the near-term earnings outlook is mixed: Q4 2025 estimates dropped 37% YoY, while FY 2026 projections rose 42%. This creates a tension—traders are betting on the future but wary of near-term profit pressures.

The stock’s 13.8% gain over the past month (vs. S&P 500’s 2.6%) shows momentum, but the RSI at 62.15 suggests it’s not overbought yet. If Tesla clears $489.09 (intraday high), it could trigger a rally toward $500. However, a drop below $430.60 (30-day resistance) would test the 200-day moving average at $425.56, where bears might pounce.

Actionable Trade Ideas

For options traders, consider buying the TSLA20260102C500 call if TSLA breaks above $489.09. The $500 strike is a psychological level with heavy open interest, and a close above it could ignite a rally. Alternatively, a bearish put spread using the TSLA20260102P470 (14,028 OI) and TSLA20260102P450 (6,371 OI) could profit if the stock dips below $430.60.

For stock traders, here’s a setup:

• Bullish entry: Buy TSLA near $430.91 (200-day resistance) if it holds. Target $489.09 (intraday high) or $500.
• Bearish entry: Short if TSLA breaks below $430.60 (30-day support), with a stop-loss above $435.

Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s options market is a battleground between bulls eyeing $500 and bears hedging at extreme puts. The robotaxi narrative and AI energy plays tilt the long-term odds higher, but near-term earnings risks and profit-taking could cause whipsaw. Watch the $430.60–$430.91 support/resistance zone—a break above it confirms bullish momentum; a drop below it signals a deeper correction.

In short, TSLA is a stock caught between its electric vehicle legacy and its AI-driven future. The options data and technicals lean bullish, but patience and tight risk management will separate winners from losers in this high-stakes game.