TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias Amid Delivery Woes: Key Strikes to Watch for 2026 Breakouts

• TSLA trades at $461.96, up 0.5% with volume surging to 34M shares.
• Options data shows a 0.816 put/call open interest ratio, with heavy call OI at $500 and put OI at $250.
• Block trades hint at bearish hedging (TSLA20260116P410) and long-term bullish bets (TSLA20260618P410).

Here’s the takeaway: TSLA shows upside potential in the near term, but options data and news suggest a volatile path ahead. The stock is caught between short-term delivery concerns and long-term AI-driven optimism. Let’s break it down.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options market is split. While total put open interest (3.2M) outpaces calls (3.9M), the top OTM calls at $500 and $480 (OI: 24K and 13K) suggest lingering bullish conviction. Meanwhile, puts at $250 (OI: 28.7K) and $260 (OI: 13.7K) for next Friday’s expiry indicate hedging activity ahead of the Q4 earnings window.

The block trades add intrigue. A 400-lot of TSLA20260116P410 puts ($410 strike, expiring Jan 16) hints at near-term bearish positioning, while a 200-lot sale of TSLA20260618P410 puts (June expiry) suggests big players are betting on a rebound by mid-2026. The key risk? If the stock dips below the 200D MA ($357) or the lower Bollinger Band ($423), the puts could dominate.

News Flow: Bearish Now, Bullish Later

Tesla’s self-reported Q4 delivery forecast (422K units, -15% YoY) has rattled short-term optimism. But the same news highlights robotaxi progress—removing safety drivers in Austin is a big deal. Investors are splitting their focus: the near-term pain (sales declines, tax credit loss) vs. the long-term gain (FSD, Cybercab).

This duality shows up in options. The heavy call OI at $500+ reflects bets on a rebound if robotaxi hype accelerates. The puts at $250+? They’re insurance against a deeper slump if production delays or macro risks hit. The market isn’t buying the 2025 delivery numbers but is pricing in a 2026 rebound.

Actionable Trade Ideas for TSLA

For options traders, consider these setups:

• Bullish: Buy TSLA20260109C465 (next Friday’s $465 call) if the stock breaks above the 200D MA ($357). Target: $480–$500. Risk: Below $450.
• Bearish: Buy TSLA20260109P430 (next Friday’s $430 put) if support at $428.63 fails. Target: $410–$400. Risk: Above $440.

For stock traders, watch these levels:

• Entry: Buy near $453 (intraday low) if the 30D MA ($444.93) holds. Target: $470–$485.
• Stop-Loss: Below $440 triggers a retest of the 200D MA.

Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s story is a tug-of-war between near-term execution risks and long-term innovation bets. The options data and block trades suggest smart money is hedging for Q4 but staying bullish on 2026. If robotaxi demos accelerate in early 2026, the $500+ calls could explode. But if delivery numbers keep falling, the $250–$300 puts might become a lifeline. Either way, the next two weeks will test whether the market buys the long-term vision.