TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $500 Dominate as Regulatory Risks Clash with Robotaxi Hopes

• TSLA plunges 4.5% to $467.66, breaking below key support levels amid regulatory scrutiny.
• Call open interest surges at $500 strike (68,313 contracts), while puts dominate at $170 and $260.
• Put/call ratio for open interest stands at 0.85, favoring bullish positioning despite near-term volatility.

Here’s the takeaway: TSLA’s options market is locked in a tug-of-war between short-term regulatory headwinds and long-term robotaxi optimism. The stock’s sharp drop today has created a volatile but actionable setup for traders who can balance risk and reward.

Bullish Calls at $500 Signal Institutional Confidence

The OTM call options with the highest open interest are clustered around the $500 strike (68,313 contracts this Friday, 39,114 next Friday). This suggests institutional players are hedging for a rebound toward pre-regulatory levels ($489.88 previous close). Meanwhile, puts at $170 (37,835 OI) and $260 (21,572 OI) hint at cautious downside protection. The put/call imbalance (0.85 ratio) reinforces a net bullish bias, but don’t ignore the risks: RSI at 81.38 indicates overbought conditions, and the stock is testing Bollinger Band support at $435.42.

Block trades like TSLA20250919C380 (1,200 contracts, $3.8M turnover) and TSLA20250919P395 (1,250 contracts) suggest large players are positioning for both near-term volatility and longer-term directional bets. These trades could signal a “buy the dip” strategy if the stock stabilizes.

Regulatory Headlines vs. Robotaxi Optimism

California’s DMV crackdown on Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” branding is a near-term drag, but the bigger story is Musk’s $1 trillion compensation package and robotaxi progress. Investors are pricing in a future where Tesla’s AI-driven revenue streams offset EV sales challenges. However, the Miami crash verdict ($243M in damages) and the 90-day appeal period for the DMV ruling add layers of uncertainty. The key question: Will regulatory delays outweigh the excitement around unsupervised robotaxi tests in Austin?

Actionable Trade Ideas for TSLA

• Options Play: Buy TSLA20251219C500 (this Friday’s $500 call) if the stock rebounds above $470. Target: $500–$520. Stop-loss: Below $460. For next Friday, consider TSLA20251226C510 if the stock holds above $450.
• Stock Play: Look to enter long positions near $428–$430 (30D support zone). If the stock breaks below $425, consider shorting with a target at $400 using TSLA20251226P400.

Volatility on the Horizon

TSLA’s path forward hinges on two forces: regulatory clarity and robotaxi execution. The options market is pricing in a 60-day window for resolution (per the DMV’s appeal period), but technical indicators suggest a test of $435 support. If bulls reclaim this level, the stock could rally toward $500–$520. If not, the 200D MA at $425.56 becomes critical. Either way, this is a stock where patience and precise entry points matter more than ever.

Bottom line: TSLA is a high-stakes chess game. The options data leans bullish, but the regulatory chessboard is still being set. Trade with a plan, and keep your eyes on both the $500 calls and the $400 puts—because in Tesla’s world, the only certainty is uncertainty.