TSLA Options Signal Bullish Bias as $450 Call OI Surpasses Puts—Here’s How to Play the Volatility

• TSLA trades at $448.90, clinging to a short-term bullish trend despite a -0.01% intraday dip.
• Options market shows call open interest (OI) dominating puts 3.95M to 3.23M, with heavy concentration at $450 and $500 calls.
• Block trades reveal whales buying March 2026 $460 puts and March $450 calls, hinting at hedging or aggressive bullish bets.

Here’s the takeaway: TSLA’s options market is screaming bullish—but with a twist. While technicals and OI suggest a push above $450, recent analyst skepticism and insider selling add friction. Let’s break it down.

Betting on the Bull Case: OTM Calls Dominate, But Puts Signal Caution

The options chain for this Friday (Jan 16) shows a clear imbalance: $450 calls (OI: 32,440) and $500 calls (OI: 48,131) dwarf put activity. The put/call ratio for open interest? A bearish 0.81, meaning traders are paying more for upside potential than downside protection.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $170 puts (OI: 58,219) and $250 puts (OI: 42,437) suggest some big players are bracing for a drop below $425. It’s a tug-of-war: bulls are stacking up for a breakout, while bears are hedging a sharp correction.

Block trades add intrigue. A 550-lot buy of March 2026 $460 puts ($2.1M turnover) signals hedging by longs. Meanwhile, 200 March $450 calls bought for $756K? That’s a big bet on a rally past $460. Think of it like a poker game—some are all-in on a raise, others are buying insurance.

Contradictory News: Analyst Doubt vs. Options Conviction

Wells Fargo’s $130 price target (a 70% drop from current levels) and Kimbal Musk’s $25M+ sale of shares scream caution. But here’s the catch: the options market isn’t pricing in that kind of collapse. The $450 call OI suggests traders expect a rebound, not a rout.

Why the disconnect? Retail and institutional investors might be discounting short-term bearish noise for Tesla’s long-term narrative—AI progress, FSD expansion, and a rebound in EV demand. The key is whether the stock can hold above $430 (30D support) to validate the bulls.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Aggressive Bets, Puts for Hedges

For options players:

• Bullish Play: Buy TSLA20260123C450 (Jan 23 $450 call). Why? High OI and a potential pop if the stock closes above $450 this week.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy TSLA20260123P250 (Jan 23 $250 put). Protect against a drop below $425, where Bollinger Bands lower bound sits at $421.86.

For stock traders:

• Entry Near $430–$431 (30D support). If the 200D MA at $365.63 holds, target $460–$470.
• Stop-Loss Below $425. A break here could trigger a test of the $421.86 lower band.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Prudence

TSLA’s story isn’t binary. The options market is pricing in a volatile week—upside potential if bulls reclaim $450, downside risk if short-covering fails. The block trades hint at a March 2026 inflection point, where $450 calls and $460 puts could become pivotal.

Bottom line: This is a stock at a crossroads. The technicals and OI lean bullish, but analyst skepticism and insider selling mean you can’t ignore the risks. Play it smart—use the $450 call as a directional bet, and the $250 put as insurance. Either way, the next 10 days could tell us a lot about TSLA’s near-term trajectory.