TSLA Options Signal $500 Bullish Bias: How Traders Can Position for Volatility Expansion by Dec 26

• TSLA trades at $483.63, down 1% from its 52-week high of $491.94
• Options data shows 34,721 open contracts at the $500 call strike—nearly 3x the next highest call
• Put/call ratio of 0.79 suggests aggressive bullish positioning ahead of Friday’s expiry

Here’s the bottom line: TSLA’s options market is painting a clear picture of a potential $500 breakout attempt by Dec 26. With technicals aligned for a short-term rally and massive call open interest at key levels, traders have a defined roadmap to capitalize—or hedge—depending on their risk appetite. Let’s break down what the numbers really mean.

Bullish Imbalance at $500 and the Shadow of Whale Activity

The options market isn’t whispering—it’s shouting. At this Friday’s expiry (Dec 26), the TSLA20251226C500 call has 34,721 open contracts, dwarfing the next highest strike ($510 at 24,611). This isn’t just noise: when retail and institutional players both pile into the same strike, it often creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. Why? Traders buy those calls expecting a price push above $500 to trigger a gamma squeeze, while market makers hedge by accumulating the stock, further fueling the move.

But don’t ignore the puts. The TSLA20251226P190 put has 33,612 open contracts—a staggering figure for a strike so far below current levels. This suggests some big players are hedging against a catastrophic drop, not just a minor pullback. The key takeaway? The market is pricing in a high-probability rally to $500+ but with a silent fear of a deeper selloff if fundamentals sour.

Block trades add intrigue. The TSLA20250919C380 call (1,200 contracts traded) and TSLA20260116P410 put (400 contracts) hint at institutional positioning months out. Someone’s betting on a summer rally and winter downside—keep an eye on those expiries for potential catalysts.

No News, But Technicals Tell a Story

The lack of recent headlines means technicals and options sentiment are driving the narrative. TSLA’s 30-day support at $428.63 and 200-day resistance at $430.92 create a tight trading range below current levels. If the stock holds above $482.84 (today’s intraday low), the RSI at 70 suggests a continuation of the bullish momentum. But here’s the catch: the Bollinger Bands upper at $497.91 is just $4.30 above today’s price. A break above that could trigger a wave of stop-loss orders and accelerate the move toward $500.

Actionable Trades for Dec 26 and Beyond

For options traders:

• TSLA20251226C500 (Dec 26 expiry): Buy if TSLA closes above $488 by Friday. Target a 10-15% move to $520.
• TSLA20260102C500 (next Friday expiry): Buy if the Dec 26 calls expire out of the money. This gives extra time for a post-holiday rally.

For stock traders:

• Entry near $482.84 (today’s low) if support holds. Target $497.91 (Bollinger Bands upper) as a first exit.
• Stop-loss below $478 to protect against a breakdown in the short-term bullish trend.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch

The next 72 hours will be critical. If TSLA closes above $490, the $500 call strike becomes a gravitational pull. But if it dips below $480, those massive put positions at $190 could signal a deeper correction. Remember: the options market isn’t predicting the future—it’s pricing in probabilities. Right now, the data says bulls have the edge, but the margin for error is razor-thin. Position accordingly.