TSLA Options Signal $500 Bull Case as Block Trades and FSD Hype Collide – Here’s How to Play It

• TSLA surges 2.47% to $450.42, breaking above 30D support/resistance at $431.27
• Call open interest dominates at $490 and $500 strikes, with 21,360 and 18,522 contracts respectively
• Block trades show $3.8M call buying at $380 strike (expiring Sept 2025), hinting at long-term bullish bets

The market is pricing in a $500+ move—or a crash to $400—by year-end. Here’s why.Bullish Bets at $500 Strike, Bearish Hedges Below $420

TSLA’s options chain is split between aggressive call buyers and cautious put hedges. This Friday’s top OTM calls ($490, $500) show 21,360 and 18,522 open contracts, while puts at $420 and $400 have 10,143 and 11,954 contracts. The 0.84 put/call ratio (for open interest) means bulls are outmuscling bears—but not by much.

Block trades add intrigue. A $3.8M call block at TSLA20250919C380 (expiring Sept 2025) and another $1.4M at TSLA20250919C400 suggest institutional players are locking in long-term upside. But don’t ignore the 43,887 puts at $160 strike—those are likely hedging extreme downside risks (think: regulatory cracks or AI hype collapse).

Morgan Stanley’s Downgrade vs. FSD’s 9,200-Mile Milestone

The news flow is a tug-of-war. Morgan Stanley’s $425 price target and bearish auto sales forecast clash with Piper Sandler’s $500 target, fueled by FSD v14.2’s 9,200-mile autonomy streak. Retail traders are pricing in both outcomes: the $490 call OI suggests belief in AI/robotics monetization, while the $420 put OI reflects fear of slowing EV demand.

Here’s the twist: TSLA’s China sales rose 9.9% in November, and FSD’s competitive edge (even with minor v14.2 dips) keeps the $500 bull case alive. The stock’s 210x P/E is a gamble, but so are the puts at $160—neither side is backing down.

3 Specific Trades for TSLA’s Volatile Crossroads

1. Call Play for $500 Breakout: Buy TSLA20251219C490 (next Friday’s $490 call) if price holds above $450.42. Target: $490+ by Dec 19. Risk: Close below $435.70 invalidates the move.
2. Stock Entry at Key Resistance: Buy TSLA near $431.27 (30D resistance) with a stop at $429.73. Target: $463 (upper Bollinger Band). Use 1.5% trailing stop to lock in gains.
3. Bearish Hedge with Puts: Buy TSLA20251219P420 (next Friday’s $420 put) if price dips to $440. Protect against Morgan Stanley’s bear case while riding the RSI 64.67 momentum.

Volatility on the Horizon: Stick to the $430–$490 Range

TSLA’s near-term fate hinges on two things: whether FSD’s $500 bull case materializes or auto demand drags it back to $425. The options market is already pricing in both outcomes. Your edge? Use the $490 call OI as a guide for breakout setups, but keep a $420 put ready if sentiment flips.

Final Take: This is a high-stakes poker game. The bulls have the table’s attention with FSD and China sales, but the bears aren’t leaving the room. Play it like a structured trade: long calls for the $500 dream, short puts for the $425 floor. And watch that $431.27 level—it’s the line in the sand.