TSLA Options Signal $500+ Breakout Potential: Call OI Surge and Block Trades Point to Bullish Setup

• TSLA trades at $485.30, down 0.7% from its 52-week high of $491.94
• Call open interest dominates at $500–$550 strikes, with 34,721 contracts at $500 (this Friday expiry)
• Wedbush’s $800 2026 target gains traction as block trades hint at long-term positioning

Here’s the takeaway: TSLA’s options market is painting a clear picture. Call open interest dwarfs puts (79:100 ratio), and heavy OI at $500 strikes suggests a price war is brewing above $500. With technicals aligned and Wedbush’s robotaxi narrative heating up, this stock is primed for a breakout—or a sharp correction if delivery fears resurface. Let’s break it down.

Call OI Dominance at $500–$550 and Block Trade Clues: A Bullish Battle Plan

The options market isn’t whispering—it’s shouting. For Friday expiry (2025-12-26), 34,721 calls at the $500 strike dwarf all other OTM calls. That’s not just noise; it’s a vote of confidence. Add in 21,201 contracts at $550, and you’ve got a wall of money betting on a $500+ close.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $190 strike has 33,612 OI, a bearish hedge against a potential pullback. Yet the call/put ratio (0.79) still tilts bullish. What’s the catch? If TSLA fails to hold above $482.84 (intraday low), that bearish hedge could trigger a short-term selloff.

Block trades add intrigue. The TSLA20260116P410 put (expiring Jan 16, 2026) saw a $1.88M trade—could this be a hedge against Q4 delivery worries? Meanwhile, the TSLA20260116P410 put and TSLA20260618P410 put suggest long-term positioning. Bulls are buying time.

News Flow: Robotaxis and Delivery Woes—Which Story Wins?

The headlines are a mixed bag. Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs trimming TSLA stakes signal profit-taking, but Wedbush’s $800 target hinges on robotaxi rollouts and Cybercab production. Here’s the rub: delivery forecasts are soft ($415K–$435K expected vs $440K consensus), but that’s already priced in. The real catalyst? Execution on AI/robotics.

Investor sentiment is split. Retail traders love the $500+ narrative, but institutional block trades hint at caution. If Tesla hits $500 and holds, the Wedbush bulls win. If delivery misses trigger a $450 slide, the puts at $450 (12,370 OI) could ignite a short-covering rally. The key is momentum—can the stock retest $491.94 before expiry?

Actionable Plays: Calls on $500 Strikes and Precision Entries for Bulls

For options traders:

• TSLA20251226C500 (this Friday expiry): Buy if TSLA closes above $495. The $500 strike is a psychological hurdle with heavy OI to catch a rebound.
• TSLA20260102C500 (next Friday expiry): A longer play if you believe in the $600+ thesis. The 5,796 OI at $550 suggests support if the $500 strike fails.

For stock:

• Entry near $482.84 (intraday low) if RSI (69.96) dips below 60. Target $500 first, then $520 (200D resistance at $430.92 is already breached).
• Stop-loss at $475 to protect against a breakdown in the 30D support zone (428.63–430.61).

Volatility on the Horizon: Ride the Bull Wave or Hedge the Risks?

TSLA’s story isn’t just about cars anymore—it’s about AI, robotics, and energy storage. The options market is pricing in a $500+ future, but delivery risks linger. If you’re bullish, the $500 calls are your best bet. If you’re cautious, the $450 puts offer downside protection. Either way, this holiday season could be a turning point. The question isn’t whether TSLA can go higher—it’s whether the bulls can hold the line above $482.84.

One thing’s certain: with Wedbush’s $800 target and block trades hinting at long-term bets, the war for $500 is just beginning.