TSLA Options Signal $450 Support Battle: Bullish Breakouts vs. Bearish Whales

• TSLA trades at $453.19, down 0.27% with volume surging to 21.6M shares.
• Options OI shows 403K calls vs. 328K puts, with heavy call interest at $500 and put bets at $250.
• Block trades reveal $3.8M call buying and $1.8M put accumulation ahead of Jan 16 expiration.
• Key takeaway: A $450 support level battle looms, with options data hinting at both bullish breakouts and bearish short-term risks.

The Options Imbalance: Bulls vs. Bears at the Crossroads

Let’s start with what’s screaming from the options chain. This Friday’s top OTM calls are clustered between $480–$510, while puts dominate at $190–$250. The 0.81 put/call OI ratio (calls > puts) suggests a long-term bullish bias, but the sheer volume of put OI at $250 ($42,595 contracts) tells a different story. Think of it like a tug-of-war: retail and institutional players are hedging against a sharp drop, while big money is stacking calls for a post-holiday rebound.

The block trades add intrigue. A $3.8M bet on the TSLA20250919C380 call (expiring Sept 19) and a $1.8M TSLA20260116P410 put (Jan 16) hint at strategic positioning. These aren’t random bets—they’re signals. The call suggests confidence in a multi-month rally, while the put implies fear of a near-term selloff.

News Flow: Burry’s Contradiction and Production Woes

Here’s where things get messy. Michael Burry’s “not short” stance clashes with Tesla’s recent headlines. The $2.9B supply deal cut to $7.4M? That’s a red flag for production costs. And delivery estimates falling 15% below Bloomberg’s forecast? That’s a demand warning.

But don’t dismiss the bulls just yet. Burry’s earlier “overvalued” comments keep pressure on the stock, yet his refusal to short it could mean he’s waiting for a better entry. Retail investors might be buying calls at $500 in hopes of a post-earnings pop, while bears are piling into puts to hedge a potential gap down after earnings or macro shocks.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

Let’s get specific. If you’re bullish but cautious, consider the TSLA20260109C492.5 call (next Friday’s $492.5 strike). With 9,069 contracts in OI, this is a liquid, low-decay option if TSLA breaks above its intraday high of $456.55. Entry: $456.55. Target: $470 (30D MA). Stop: $452.3 (intraday low).

For downside protection, the TSLA20260109P250 put (next Friday’s $250 strike) is a heavy OI play. If TSLA dips below $430.6 (middle Bollinger Band), this put could surge. Entry: $430.6. Target: $425.5 (200D support). Stop: $435.

Stock traders: Consider entry near $430.6 if support holds, with a target at $446.6 (30D MA) and a hard stop at $427.1 (lower Bollinger Band).

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for TSLA’s New Year Move

Tesla’s at a crossroads. The options market is pricing in a $450 support battle, with both bulls and bears armed to the teeth. Short-term, the puts at $250 and block trades hint at a possible dip before the Jan 16 expiration. Long-term, the 30D and 100D MAs are trending higher, and those $500 calls won’t expire until September.

This isn’t a simple “buy” or “sell” story—it’s a chess match. The key is to position for volatility, not predict it. If you’re in, hedge with puts. If you’re out, look for a pullback to $430.6 before stacking calls. Either way, the next two weeks will tell us if TSLA’s bearish correction is a speed bump or a detour.