TSLA Options Signal $250 Put Pressure: Here’s How to Hedge or Profit Before Earnings

• Put/call ratio skews bearish: Open interest favors puts (0.82 ratio), with $250 puts dominating next Friday’s chain.
• Block trades hint at institutional caution: A $410 put block and $410 call trades suggest hedging ahead of Q4 results.
• Price action splits the room: Tesla’s 461.9 price sits between short-term bearish momentum and long-term bullish MA lines.

Here’s the thing: Tesla’s options market is screaming about a potential $250 support test, but the stock’s technicals and news flow complicate the picture. Let’s break it down.

Bullish vs Bearish Whales: Where the Money’s Flowing

The options chain is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. This Friday’s top OTM calls cluster around $480–$520, while puts dominate at $250 and $260. The TSLA20260102P250 put has 28,660 open contracts—nearly 10x the nearest rival. That’s not just bearish sentiment; it’s a bet on a sharp drop. Meanwhile, block trades like the TSLA20260116P410 put (sold for $1.88M) and TSLA20250919C380 call (bought for $3.81M) suggest big players are hedging or positioning for a post-earnings move. The $250 put strike isn’t random—it aligns with Tesla’s 200D support zone (425.55–430.92), where a breakdown could trigger panic.

News That’s Fueling the Fire

Tesla’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The company’s self-reported Q4 delivery estimates (422,850 cars) are 15% lower than last year, and the stock just fell 3% after a South Korean battery supplier cut contract values. That’s bad for margins. But here’s the twist: Tesla’s long-term bullish MA lines (30D: 444.93, 200D: 357.06) still point higher. The market is pricing in near-term pain but betting on a rebound once the Model Y retooling pays off. The challenge? Retail investors might panic-sell at $450, while institutions could step in to buy the dip if the stock holds above $453.83 (today’s intraday low).

Actionable Trades: Protect or Profit

For options traders, the TSLA20260109P250 put is a high-conviction play if you believe in a $250–$300 drop. It’s cheap right now (implied volatility is low), but a breakdown below $453.83 could send it soaring. Alternatively, a call spread using the TSLA20260109C480 and TSLA20260109C500 could work if the stock bounces off support. For stock traders, consider entering near $453.83 if the price holds—your first target is the 462.46 Bollinger Band middle line. If it breaks, aim for a stop-loss below $450.

Volatility on the Horizon

Tesla’s next move hinges on two things: whether Q4 delivery numbers hit the 422k mark and if the stock can retest the $500 level without collapsing. The options market is pricing in a 20% downside risk, but the long-term bullish trend isn’t dead. This is a high-volatility setup—brace for a wild ride. If you’re not all-in, hedge with the TSLA20260116P410 put or ride the call spread. Either way, don’t let fear or greed blind you to the data. The road ahead is bumpy, but the destination? Still worth the drive.